This wave of SOL’s price action just happens to have played out the “first half of the script” that others were talking about—but whether it can rise further has already been answered by the order book.

When others called for “breaking the 97 high and then pulling back,” the first half has already been fulfilled: the price surged straight to 98.36, swept out the stop-loss orders near the contract previous high area, then flipped and dumped back to around 96—an all-too-typical pump-and-dump pattern, not a signal of a trend going up. Now looking at the candlestick chart, the Bollinger Bands middle rail has already turned downward, and as the price fell away from the high, volume expanded, but the rebounds have kept coming on shrinking volume—showing that the longs’ momentum was completely used up at the moment of the spike. The trapped positions above 97–98 have already formed strong overhead pressure; every rebound is pinned down by sell pressure and can’t even reach the middle rail, let alone another push toward 100.

As for what others said—“pull back to 92–94, then rally upward again”—the probability from the current setup is extremely low. This breakout to the top was a pulse-like move designed to lure longs; without sustained follow-through capital, after the main players leverage the move to sweep out stop-losses, the chasing crowd is already trapped up at the top of the hill. After that, only liquidation/stop-out selling will come out; there won’t be new capital entering to “rescue” the trapped positions. Right now, the price is oscillating around 96, which is a weak rebound during a downtrend. The support at 95 is being tested repeatedly; once it breaks, the price will directly probe toward the 92 area, completing the pullback portion of his script rather than restarting an upward move.

In short, his short-position thesis actually matches the price action better. The so-called “script to rise again” is most likely just a gimmick to attract the FOMO crowd. With the chart already showing clear weakness, there’s no momentum to make another push higher in the near term. #TROLL两日涨超160% $SOL