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Tonight's CPI is the biggest variable for Bitcoin, directly determining whether 80k is a "rebound starting point" or a "double top retreat"
CPI > 3.7% (Bearish)
Market reaction: Rate cut expectations delayed to September or later, US dollar strengthens
Bitcoin trend: Direct decline, first watch 785–790 support; if broken, then 760–770
Features: Large bearish candle, increased volatility, more contract liquidations
CPI ≈ 3.7% (Neutral)
Market reaction: Expectations unchanged, rate cut in June still possible
Bitcoin trend: Narrow range fluctuation, between 795–815, difficult to break new highs or fall sharply
Features: Low volatility, back-and-forth scanning, suitable for range trading
CPI < 3.7% (Bullish)
Market reaction: June rate cut expectations heat up, US dollar weakens, liquidity easing expectations increase
Bitcoin trend: Break through 815–820 resistance, open upward space, target 850+
Features: Rapid surge, volume increase, spot buying follows #TROLL两日涨超160% #特朗普5月13日访华