5.12 Bitcoin is stagnating here, making me feel sleepy, but tonight's CPI probably will cause a big move

Brothers, today is May 12th, and the market is so dull it’s almost boring. I’ve been watching all day, and Bitcoin is just swinging around 81,000 with a few hundred dollars up or down. Ethereum is even softer, barely holding onto 2,300. This kind of half-dead market, those who understand know—it's the calm before the storm.

Let me share what I see.

Bitcoin is currently quoting around 81,100, yesterday it touched 82,000 but was immediately pushed back, indicating that the 82K level isn’t that easy to break. Below, there are buy orders around 80,500 supporting the price, so it can’t fall further for now. But the most critical thing is the 200-day moving average pressing down from above; this rebound has been beaten back several times here, each time with a black eye. Honestly, I don’t have the confidence to call a one-sided move at this level.

Ethereum is even worse, with the exchange rate hitting new lows against Bitcoin, and it’s been three days at 2,300, looking like a bottom, but do you believe it? I only dare to watch from afar, not to mess around. Altcoin season? Let’s wait a bit longer.

Tonight at 8:30, the CPI data will be released, and that’s the starting gun. The expected annual rate is 3.7%, which is a bit high. If it really exceeds expectations, the market will definitely sell off first; at 78K, it’s very likely to test that level, even dip to 73 or 74. If there’s a surprise and it comes in below expectations, I think this half-month-long spring will spring back up, with the CME gap near 90 as the first target. The betting crowd on Polymarket is actually 100% betting on inflation staying above 3%, but I always feel that consensus expectations are too strong, which makes a black swan more likely.

But one thing that makes me feel more secure—that on-chain data doesn’t lie. Exchange-held Bitcoin keeps flowing out, large wallets are quietly adding positions, and USDT has issued another 1 billion. Clearly, there’s money waiting to buy the dip. Whales aren’t fools; they’re so eager to scoop up coins that even if short-term looks bad, I dare not go completely bearish.

These days, there’s also the CLARITY bill on the 14th. I won’t go into detail, but it’s something that could rewrite industry rules. Passing it is good for the long term, but how the market interprets it in the short term, nobody can guess.

So my current strategy is just one word: endure. If you hold spot, don’t mess around; if you’re out of the market, don’t rush to buy. Wait until CPI data is out and clear, then chase or cut your positions—no need to rush those few hours. If a golden opportunity appears and the market drops into a pit, that’s the heavens rewarding patience. Then we’ll fire our bullets.

No panic, accumulate chips in a bear market, so we can eat meat in a bull market. Stay alert tonight, I’ll keep updating on any movements.

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