Cryptocurrency markets face multiple intertwined factors; can Bitcoin hold above $80k this week?

This week will become an important macro window since 2026. Among them, inflation data, the transition of Federal Reserve Chair, China-U.S. relations, retail data, crude oil prices, and the dollar trend will be densely intertwined within five trading days, directly testing whether Bitcoin has macro support after breaking through $80,000.

The first to be released this week will be the April CPI on Tuesday and the PPI data on Wednesday. March CPI surged due to a sharp rise in energy prices, with gasoline soaring 21.2% in a single month. If April data shows inflation is still spreading, it will directly test the new Federal Reserve Chair’s response capability.

Next, Thursday’s retail sales and Federal Reserve balance sheet data will simultaneously test consumer demand and liquidity conditions. By Friday, Powell will officially step down as Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Wirth taking over. The market is also closely watching Wirth’s policy signals when first facing inflation data.

Meanwhile, Trump will visit Beijing from May 14 to 15 and meet with the top leader. Constructive talks may reduce trade risk premiums and weaken the dollar; tense atmospheres could push the dollar higher and suppress liquidity in risk assets.

For Bitcoin, the most unfavorable scenario includes rising CPI and PPI, strong retail performance, declining Federal Reserve reserves, and tense China-U.S. talks, all pointing to tightening financial conditions;

Conversely, if inflation remains moderate, consumption slows but remains resilient, reserves improve, and China-U.S. relations ease, it could provide Bitcoin with the strongest macro support since 2026.

However, the market may present a more complex situation. Energy pushes up overall inflation but core inflation cools; nominal retail remains steady while actual demand slows. This combination will keep Bitcoin in a macro waiting zone, lacking clear signals for a breakout.

In summary, investors should focus on Wirth’s policy signals, real interest rates and dollar trends, Federal Reserve reserve changes, spot ETF net inflows, and holdings structure.

The outcome of this series of macro factors intertwined may determine whether Bitcoin regains macro tailwinds or falls back into volatility under multiple pressures.

#BTC