#Gate广场五月交易分享

My Bitcoin Intraday Long Plan

1. Market Summary and Technical Analysis

Current Bitcoin Price: $81,319, 24h Change: -0.12%,
On the technical indicators, both daily and 4-hour charts maintain a bullish alignment (Daily MA7=81,066 > MA30=77,897 > MA120=74,756),
ADX at 32.7 indicates the upward trend is still ongoing. The 4-hour ADX is even higher at 43.4, showing stronger short-term momentum.
The SAR in both 4-hour and daily timeframes exhibits bullish stop-loss characteristics (4h SAR=80,710, daily SAR below candlesticks),
The trend framework leans bullish.

However, today’s situation is notably different from last week—24h trading volume is about 500 million USDT, far exceeding the 7-day average, but the price has slightly declined by 0.12%, showing a pattern of "volume increase and price decline, panic intensifies."
This indicates significant selling pressure at current levels, with short-term funds fleeing.
The 15-minute CCI is oversold (-137.6), RSI at 37.5, signaling a short-term weak position;
The 15-minute closing price has broken below the MA20, clearly indicating short-term weakness.
However, the 15-minute MACD shows a bullish divergence (price makes new lows but volume bars increase), suggesting the downward momentum may be waning and a rebound correction could be needed.

2. News and Sentiment Analysis

First, Strategy just bought 535 BTC (about $43 million), and Saylor’s STRC is still raising funds to buy an additional 2,400+ BTC, showing strong institutional buying interest.

Second, BTC ETF experienced a net outflow of -146 million USD on May 8, the first single-day net outflow since May, after six consecutive weeks of net inflows, which warrants caution.
The Fear & Greed Index VIX is at 49 (last time 38), indicating sentiment has warmed but remains neutral.

3. Trading Plan

Divide into two batches of position building.

Batch 1 — Entry zone 80,700-80,800, recommended position size 40%

The 4-hour SAR bullish stop-loss line is at 80,710, and the daily MA7 is at 81,066.
Price has retraced from 81,319 to near current levels; if it continues downward to the 80,700-80,800 zone and touches the 4-hour SAR stop-loss line for stabilization,
combined with a rebound signal after the 15-minute CCI is oversold (bullish candlestick, MACD histogram turns positive or bullish divergence confirmed),
then it’s safe to enter with a light position.
The key here is: do not chase the falling knife during volume-driven declines; wait for a clear reversal signal before acting.

Batch 2 — Entry zone 80,450-80,500, recommended position size 60%

The 24h low near 80,463 is also a recent strong support zone on the daily chart.
If price sharply retraces to this level, risk is more fully released, and the entry margin of safety is higher.
But note: if volume breaks below 80,450 without signs of stabilization, it indicates selling pressure is accelerating, and you should avoid adding more longs and consider abandoning the long plan.

Take-profit targets: staged partial profit-taking

Target 1 — 81,600-81,700: above the 15-minute MA20 (81,587) and the recent 4-hour high of 81,511, the first resistance zone for rebound.
Upon reaching, reduce position by 30% to lock in profits.
If the rebound stalls and reverses here, it indicates limited short-term recovery strength, and it’s better not to fight the trend.

Target 2 — 82,100-82,135: near the 24h high of 82,134, also a recent daily high.
If price breaks through and stabilizes in this zone, it suggests the decline is just a short-term shakeout, and the trend is resuming upward.
Upon reaching, reduce another 40%.

Target 3 — 83,500-84,000: CME gap area and April high, possibly touched if intraday momentum continues to explode.
Remaining 30% can be chased, with a trailing stop to follow the move.

Stop-loss settings:

Hard stop-loss: 80,350 (below the 24h low of 80,463 by about 110 points, confirming volume-driven decline support failure, must exit).

Trailing stop rules:
After entry, if price rebounds more than 300 points, move stop-loss to entry price +50 points (break-even stop).
After reaching Target 1, move remaining position stop-loss to 80,800 (near Batch 1 entry).
After reaching Target 2, move stop-loss to 81,200.