Bitcoin has just had a fairly strong defensive move around the $79,000 region, then rebounded back to the $82,000 – $83,000 area. Notably, while BTC recovers, the altcoin group is also starting to accelerate significantly. The Total3 index is approaching an important resistance zone and has shown a bearish divergence signal on the 12-hour chart.

In many previous cycles, when the market approaches the short-term peak, a “run-up” in altcoins often occurs. Capital flows spread more strongly, crowd sentiment becomes more euphoric, many believe the bull market has returned, and risk appetite increases rapidly. However, that euphoric phase sometimes signals that the market has entered the latter half of the rally.
Therefore, at this moment, I still lean toward the scenario: BTC is gradually approaching a local peak.
When observing the USDT.D index further, this feeling becomes even clearer. Previously, the USDT ratio was rejected precisely around the 7.25% mark and is now retracing toward the EMA21 line on the 12H chart. This indicates that the short-term risk appetite of the market still remains.
Two important zones to watch in the near future include:
- BTC: $83,000 – $85,000 (upper resistance zone)
- USDT.D: 6.7% (lower support zone)
If BTC continues to push up to the $84,100 level or higher, I will prioritize increasing short positions with leverage in this zone, as I consider this area to have an attractive risk/reward ratio for a sell-down strategy.
However, this scenario also has a clear invalidation condition:
If BTC can close the week and hold firmly above $94,000, the market structure will change completely.
{spot}(BTCUSDT)