Kalshi is already valued at $22 billion.

Its founders: Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara
Two twenty-somethings from the world of finance leave everything behind
Obsessed with prediction markets
They spot the gap: there is no direct coverage for economic events
Brexit lights a fuse for them
Those convoluted strategies don’t pay off
2018: They make the decision to launch Kalshi
They toss their finance jobs overboard as soon as they finish university
Mission: legalize prediction markets in the U.S. and bring them into the regulated arena
Most lawyers tell them it’s a pipe dream
Jeff Bandman backs them and gets them their first meeting with the CFTC
2019:
A long string of lawyers tells them they’re crazy
They travel around Europe looking for licenses (Malta and other destinations)
They join Y Combinator’s winter batch
2020:
Months locked in: they devour derivatives regulations and all the CFTC documents
Surviving on ramen
In November: the CFTC approves them as the first U.S. DCM for event contracts
On the same playing field as Wall Street’s heavyweight players
2021:
They polish the product without stopping
Launch in July: economics and climate markets
2022:
After launch, everything is very tough—they struggle to attract customers
They expand: COVID indicators, more climate and financial markets
2023:
They cut staff in search of efficiency with zero revenue on the table
They send contracts to Congress ahead of the legislative elections
The CFTC stops them in September
They take the regulator to court, bet the house at the closing, but don’t loosen their grip
2024:
Growth stalls
September 6: the District Court rules in their favor, and politics runs its course
October 2: the Court of Appeals rejects a stay
A month before the elections: volume of more than 600 million—equivalent to all of the previous history combined
2025:
They increase the team and open more markets
They bring sports in: NFC/AFC East championships
Monthly volume reaches the billions
2026:
$10 million in revenue for each employee
Institutional push: banks, funds, companies
They raise $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation (led by Coatue; with Sequoia, a16z, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK)
That crazy idea from back then that ended up becoming the largest prediction markets platform.