Has the Bitcoin halving cycle theory become invalid? This once-revered "4-year bull-bear law" now seems increasingly unreliable.

It's still quite interesting to think about. In the early days of the Bitcoin market, every four years there would be a mining reward halving. This mechanism was cleverly designed—by periodically reducing the issuance rate of new coins to curb inflation. And surprisingly, each halving in the past has precisely triggered a bull market. The three halvings in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020 basically became the starting points of explosive price movements, with Bitcoin often hitting new all-time highs in the year following each halving.

Following this logic, this year should be no exception. Having just experienced the most recent halving in April 2024, based on past patterns, Bitcoin should peak around October this year. The reasoning sounds perfect.

But analysts at K33 Research have poured cold water on this idea. They believe this script is outdated, and the reasons are not hard to understand. In the early days, the Bitcoin market was small, with limited circulation, and the supply shock caused by halving could easily spark waves. But that’s no longer the case—large institutional funds are flooding in, and sovereign nations are starting to hold Bitcoin. As Bitcoin gradually integrates into the mainstream asset system, market dynamics are no longer driven solely by supply and demand.

What truly drives the market now are macroeconomic factors like the overall economic environment, inflation pressures, and geopolitical risks. While Bitcoin’s halving history may have witnessed countless price surges, today’s market no longer responds to that.

K33 Research straightforwardly states that Bitcoin is undergoing transformation. It used to be a highly speculative asset with "reflexivity"—price increases attracting buyers, who chase the rally and push prices higher, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. Now, it is evolving into a more mature, more rational store of value, and the pure halving effect is no longer enough to shake the market. Bitcoin halvings will still happen, but they are no longer the inevitable trigger for a bull run. The market is growing up, and the logic is being rewritten.