I recently came across an interesting perspective. Legendary trader Peter Brandt has made a rather bold prediction: Bitcoin is expected to reach $250k by 2029. It sounds like a fairy tale, but this veteran with 50 years of experience in financial markets is not speaking off the cuff.

His logic is based on the pattern of Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle. After each halving, the market usually peaks within 16 to 18 months, then falls into a long correction lasting about a year, until about 12 to 18 months before the next halving when a new trend begins to brew. Looking at past cycles, this script has played out almost perfectly. After Bitcoin's halving in April last year, the market reached a high of $126k around October, about 18 months later.

Following this logic, the current bear market should bottom around October 2026, then a new bull run will start. When the next halving occurs in April 2028, after about 18 months of brewing, the price could surge to $250k by the end of 2029. This is his core judgment on Bitcoin's price trajectory.

However, Brandt also sounds a warning. He expects the bottom might not appear until September or October this year, and the process could be quite tough. He says that in the worst case, Bitcoin might retest the $50k range, or even dip below $40k. But he emphasizes that this doesn't necessarily mean it will break recent lows; it could also be a back-and-forth between rebounds and corrections, forming a painful oscillating shakeout pattern.

This view actually conflicts somewhat with mainstream voices in the crypto space. Most analysts are optimistic, believing that the correction ended around early February near $60k, and that this rebound marks the start of a new bull market. The data indeed looks good—Bitcoin has gained over 25% since February, and recently broke above $80k. Currently, the price fluctuates around $81k, still far from the all-time high of $126k.

Interestingly, Brandt does not say that Bitcoin's price will necessarily follow his forecast exactly. He openly states that his prediction is based on the assumption that the market continues to follow historical patterns. If one day the price action starts to deviate, he will not hesitate to revise his view entirely—unlike some who stubbornly cling to their predictions.

Having navigated the financial markets for so many years, he knows well how unpredictable they can be. So rather than claiming to predict the future, he is more like warning everyone: enduring this long bottoming phase is the key. Whether Bitcoin's price can ultimately play out that $250k story depends on whether the market continues to follow this script.