Iran talks hit a dead end on Sunday, and on Monday Trump convened a national security meeting to revisit military options.

Diplomacy is dead.

The only keyword in this news is: “refusal.”

Iran rejected many of Trump’s demands, refusing to make “meaningful concessions” on the nuclear program. The word “meaningful” is crucial—it suggests Iran may have made some symbolic concessions, but what Trump wants is substantive, comprehensive constraints on the nuclear program.

Once diplomacy has reached this point, it basically means: one side is naming outrageous prices, the other is countering with what it can afford—neither wants to be the first to admit defeat.

And Trump’s choice is—“All right, I’ll blow it up so you can see.”

That’s his consistent negotiation style: maximum pressure → public threats → offering a way out at the last moment. The problem is that this round seems to be something Iran doesn’t buy into—they’re digging in hard, holding out until negotiations collapse.

Impact on the market:

Military options returning = a sharp increase in the probability that oil prices will rise.

Remember that NACHO logic? The market no longer believes in a “quick resolution.” And now, even the “diplomatic path” itself is wavering—which means the probability of military action has shifted from “an accident” to “a discussed option.”

If military action really does resume—

Brent could return to $115 or even higher.

Inflation expectations heat up again.

The Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline continues to get pushed back.

BTC faces pressure.

Those shorts that built positions precisely ahead of the negotiation headlines last week are now very likely adding more.

A negotiation breakdown is their biggest ally. #Gate广场五月交易分享 $GT