I have been closely following the geopolitical markets on Polymarket recently and discovered a quite interesting phenomenon—when traditional financial markets react sluggishly due to weekend closures, this decentralized prediction platform becomes a "barometer" for real-time observation of geopolitical developments worldwide.

Since the United States and Israel jointly launched airstrikes against Iran, a large number of related contracts have appeared on Polymarket. Just during that wave of market activity, over $500 million in trading volume was generated, making it the largest market in the "World" and "Geopolitics" categories. Some traders made huge profits during this period; for example, the account "Curseaaaaaaaa" profited $757k by betting "Yes," and four other traders also achieved six-figure gains. Of course, there were also those who lost heavily—one trader who made $2 million shorting a few months ago lost $6.5 million within a day after the airstrikes occurred.

What is most unsettling here are the mysterious accounts that seem to "enter precisely" at the right moments. According to on-chain analysis company monitoring, six Polymarket wallets purchased "Yes" shares of related contracts just hours before the joint airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel in the early morning, netting a profit of $1 million. This level of accuracy has led the community to question whether insider trading is involved.

Polymarket officials responded assertively, claiming that prediction markets embody collective intelligence and can provide accurate forecasts for important societal events. But honestly, accusations of insider trading are not uncommon on this platform. As early as January this year, someone bet $32k on the political situation in Venezuela and made over $400k in profit within a day. Even more outrageous, Israeli prosecutors have prosecuted a reserve military officer and a civilian for allegedly using classified military intelligence to place bets on Polymarket, with combined gains exceeding $150k.

This raises a fundamental question: does Polymarket truly offer more transparent information references, or does it open a convenient channel for those with inside information to cash out? As such incidents become more frequent, this debate will only intensify. If you're interested, you can follow the relevant asset trends on Gate and see how the market reacts to these geopolitical changes.