Recently, I came across a quite interesting market divergence. The crypto industry’s godfather, Michael Terpin, recently made a bold prediction, saying that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out, and those looking to buy the dip might need to wait a bit longer.

Terpin is the author of "The Bitcoin Super Cycle" and a veteran player in this field. He entered the digital asset space as early as 2013 and founded iconic institutions like Transform Group and CoinAgenda. His core view is that Bitcoin’s true bottom should be around $57,000, roughly in October. He states quite plainly — despite recent months seeing double-digit gains, the trend is still downward, “We haven’t even seen a decent support level yet.”

His more aggressive prediction is that for a true bull market to return, Bitcoin must break through the psychological barrier of $100k. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $81,740, still some distance from that target. Terpin’s analysis suggests that the current rebound is just a typical “dead cat bounce” — with lower highs, continuously wearing down investors’ patience until the market finally experiences a panic sell-off.

This view is completely opposite to mainstream Wall Street perspectives. Many market participants believe that the February low of $60,000 already marked the end of the bear market, and a new bull market is about to begin. Their confidence comes from the steady inflow of funds into US spot ETFs and Bitcoin’s resilience during geopolitical conflicts. But Terpin isn’t convinced. He pointed out that last week during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin faced strong resistance at the $80,000 level, which fully aligns with his expectation of a weak market pattern.

Interestingly, Jason Fernandes, an analyst at Web3 investment platform AdLunam, also agrees that “Bitcoin has not yet bottomed,” but has different views on the details. He believes that a true panic sell-off has not yet occurred, which usually involves large-scale exits by long-term holders. Fernandes emphasizes that solid bottoms often appear when “speculative leverage is thoroughly washed out” and “overall economic uncertainty is completely eliminated.” He warns that current market liquidity remains tight, and various risk assets are still adjusting to a “higher and longer” interest rate environment. Unless there’s a major shift in monetary policy or a thorough market cleansing, the risk of downward volatility remains high.

Of course, there are differing opinions. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, thinks Terpin’s view is “overly pessimistic.” He points out that with increasing institutional adoption and growing market interest, there’s still significant room for growth this year, and reaching new all-time highs is a reasonable expectation. Fernandes adds from a market sentiment perspective that the investment atmosphere has not yet fallen into the “extremely pessimistic” level, so Bitcoin might still need to drop further.

Regarding that $100k bull market threshold, Fernandes believes it’s less of a technical analysis point and more of a strong psychological signal. The true bull market depends on “whether the highs can be sustained higher” and “whether capital continues to flow in,” rather than just breaking through a certain price level. However, he also admits that when Bitcoin actually hits $100k, the massive psychological effect could indeed trigger a real bull rush.

So, those looking to buy the dip should be mentally prepared — this debate might continue further.