Recently, legendary trader Peter Brandt has once again thrown out a bold prediction, saying that Bitcoin could rise to $250,000 by 2029. This veteran has spent 50 years in the financial markets, so he isn’t just speaking off the cuff—but at the same time, he also poured a bucket of cold water: if you want to see that super rally, you first have to get through a long bottoming period, and in the worst case, it could even fall to just over $40,000.

His logic is actually quite clear—it is built on the rule set of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. Traders all know this playbook: about 16 to 18 months after the halving, it reaches a peak, then enters a bear market lasting up to a full year, until 12 to 18 months before the next halving, when a new market cycle begins to form.

Take a look at whether the latest round is playing out this way. In April 2024, Bitcoin completed the halving (block rewards falling from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC). As a result, roughly 18 months later—around October 2025—it touched a new all-time high. Following this schedule, the bear market that started at the end of last year should bottom around October 2026. Then a new bull market would begin. After the next halving in April 2028, it would take roughly 18 months to build momentum, ultimately surging to $250,000 by the end of 2029.

Brandt is very straightforward: in the worst case, Bitcoin could retrace to $50,000, or even dip into the $40,000-plus range. But he stresses that this does not necessarily mean it will fall below the recent lows. More likely, it would rebound first, then trade sideways—possibly even oscillating repeatedly during the process. Only after riding out this period of pain would Bitcoin have a chance to top out in 2029.

This view is completely at odds with the prevailing sentiment in the crypto community right now. Most analysts believe that after Bitcoin set a high of $126,000 in October last year, the correction was already completed in early February at around $60,000, and that the recent rebound is the start of a new bull market. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is currently around 81.75K, up more than 25% from the February low.

What’s interesting is that Brandt’s prediction isn’t saying Bitcoin will definitely break below February’s low. He believes a more likely scenario is a tug-of-war between rebounds and pullbacks—forming a frustrating sideways “shakeout” pattern—before the bottoming process can be completed. The seasoned trader also specifically emphasized that he is always prepared to adjust his forecast based on how the market moves, and he will not stubbornly stick to a script that stops working. If the price starts to deviate from the expected path, he will promptly and thoroughly revise his outlook.

To be honest, predictions based on historical cycle patterns are still worth paying attention to. No matter what, Bitcoin’s path in the near term should give us an answer. If you’re interested, you can follow BTC’s movements on Gate and see how this rally ultimately plays out.