5.12 BTC Morning Thoughts

Strong logic + attention-grabbing + practicality

1. Logic support

- Technical analysis - 4-hour: 81,800 strong resistance (previous period high + Bollinger upper band), 80,500 middle band support
- Hourly chart: MACD is about to form a golden cross, volume is moderate, downward momentum has been exhausting
- Key levels: 80,000 psychological level, 79,500 strong support; above 82,500 breakout level
- Funds side: ETF continues to see net inflows, institutions locking up positions, buy pressure above 80,000 is strong
- Cost basis of short-term holders: 80,000–81,800, with concentrated selling pressure around 81,750
- Before CPI, the market is cautious, with mainly narrow-range consolidation of 80,000–82,500

2. Trend characterization

Short-term: oscillating with a bullish bias, building strength at high levels, waiting for a breakout

- Holding above 81,800 → aiming for 82,500
- Not breaking 80,500 → bullish oscillation
- Breaking below 80,000 → short-term turns weaker

3. Practical targets

Low-buy
- Entry: 80,800–81,200
- Target: 81,800–82,400

High sell/short
- Entry: 81,900–82,300
- Target: 81,000–80,500
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