I recently discovered a pretty interesting phenomenon. In this bull market, most of the coins that have surged dramatically are created by foreign teams. Domestic project teams are either lying low on the floor without moving or just riding the wave to catch up, rarely leading the pack. The狂人 (Crazy Man) observed that there’s something behind this.

To put it simply, most domestic projects are made to make quick money, and few are truly driven by dreams. Our generation has huge disparities in family conditions—some live in luxury homes and drive luxury cars, while others are still calculating whether cabbage is expensive or not. So most people are still in the stage of needing money. Once they get funding, it’s hard to stick to their original dreams because continuing might burn through all their savings. Instead of developing uncertain technology, they prefer to quickly shrink the team and cash out. This kind of “soft exit with money” approach has very low risk, especially since the market is unregulated.

In contrast, many foreign projects are genuinely built for the long haul, not just to make a quick profit and run. That’s why you see projects like THETA, ZIL, MANA, and ZEN re-emerging during the bull market. The logic is simple: they progress with technology and develop with the times. This phenomenon will continue, and the trend of the strong getting stronger and the weak getting weaker will become more obvious.

Institutions are also buying coins at a rapid pace. 24 institutional investors already hold over 460k Bitcoin. Considering the current circulating supply of a few million, this holding is already quite substantial. The key point is that institutions are only accumulating and not selling much, still close to their cost basis, so the circulating supply is decreasing, naturally pushing the price higher. When Bitcoin reaches $80,000–$100k, some institutions might consider dumping.

There’s also a miraculous data point: over 60% of Bitcoin addresses haven’t moved any Bitcoin in over a year. Despite Bitcoin rising from $3,800 to $50,000, most addresses haven’t sold. This is almost unimaginable in any market, showing how strong Bitcoin’s consensus is. These holders are waiting for even higher skies.

Tether has printed another 1 billion USDT, now the single issuance amount is ten times what it was before—super impressive. The greed index has hit 95, but currently, there’s no significant risk for Bitcoin. Instead, the riskier part is those small coins that are repeatedly hyped.

Now, let’s look at the specific market situation. Bitcoin is now at 81.84K, continuing to fluctuate upward, with many coins unable to keep up. Today’s big gains are mostly in rebound coins, indicating that capital is flowing back into Bitcoin more clearly. Long-term investors should keep holding without overthinking; for short-term, watch the 5-day moving average. If it doesn’t break below, hold; if it does, avoid. The狂人 (Crazy Man) believes it’s highly likely to continue challenging new highs.

ETH is at 2.34K, relatively weaker than Bitcoin, but the trend isn’t bad. Keep holding. HT today failed to recover the 5-day moving average, so it might see a short-term pullback. DOT is holding above the 5-day line; as long as it doesn’t break, hold. XRP continues climbing, but the pressure is increasing, and a correction is near. LINK finally surged; if you hold it, keep holding. BCH is in a rebound rally, accelerating, so consider trimming some. LTC is moving steadily; hold. ADA, if it doesn’t recover the 5-day line tonight, take profits first and keep the principal for further play. DASH’s candlestick is thin and long, indicating a correction is expected. ETC has historically not performed well the day after a big surge, so it’s not recommended to chase. DOGE is at 0.11; this platform has support, so wait and see.

I won’t talk about other coins. DeFi concept tokens are still in a short-term correction cycle. Traders of small coins should remember the risks—if Bitcoin pulls back now, small coins will be even harder to imagine.