I recently noticed a rather interesting phenomenon: starting in 2026, the long-dormant NFT market has actually started to ripple again. Over the past week, hundreds of NFT projects have seen price rebounds—something that genuinely feels like a different world to players who’ve been trapped for years.

But honestly, this rebound is still mostly just existing capital having a little self-entertainment within a very small range. Just look at the trading data—among more than 1,700 NFT projects, only 6 have transaction volumes in the million-dollar range; most projects have single-digit trading volumes, and some have basically no trades at all. With liquidity dried up to this extent, talking about “recovery” is just a waste of breath.

Last year’s data from The Block is even more brutal: total NFT trading volume for the whole year was only $5.5 billion, down 37% from 2024. Total market capitalization shrank from $9 billion to $2.4 billion. This is reality—after the NFT bubble burst, new capital simply doesn’t buy in anymore, leaving only old players stuck inside it.

Just look at how those former leading projects are surviving. OpenSea no longer clings to JPEG images and has pivoted to token trading. Flow has moved from a public chain to DeFi. Zora has even given up on traditional NFTs outright, switching to “content as tokens.” Even top names like Pudgy Penguins can’t escape the fate of falling floor prices—hot sales of physical toys can’t save on-chain assets. Reddit directly stopped its NFT services, Nike sold RTFKT, and the decisive exit by Web2 giants is like nailing the coffin shut.

What’s interesting is that the money hasn’t really disappeared—it’s just changed battlefields. Big players in crypto are starting to vote with their feet. Beeple has shifted to creating physical robots. A Wintermute creator/team member spent $5 million buying dinosaur fossils. Animoca’s founder splurged $9 million on a Stradivarius violin. Pokémon TCG card trading volume exceeds $1 billion—this is where the real hot money is going.

So who’s still playing NFTs now? Mainly these types of people:

One group is speculators, who believe the market has already bottomed out and try to catch short-term swings by exploiting price mismatches. The risk-reward ratio is high, but it’s also easy to get cut.

Another group watches “golden shovel”-type NFTs—essentially financial proof for future token airdrops. Once snapshots are completed or the airdrops are distributed, if the project team doesn’t deliver new utility, the floor price often crashes and drops to zero. These are only suitable for short-term arbitrage—don’t think about holding long-term.

People also play NFTs backed by celebrities or top projects. For example, after Hypurr NFTs from HyperLiquid were launched, they kept climbing; and after Vitalik switched to a Milady avatar a few days ago, its floor price clearly went up. Short-term premiums driven by attention economics are still there.

What’s truly valuable is top-tier IP NFTs—like CryptoPunks, which have been included as permanent holdings by the Museum of Modern Art in New York. These have moved beyond hype logic; they’re more about cultural recognition and collectible value, so prices are relatively more resistant to downturns. There are also projects that have been acquired—for example, Pudgy Penguins and Moonbirds. After being taken over by stronger capital, the market reprices them: expectations rise that the IP can be monetized more effectively, and prices move upward accordingly.

The most promising direction is tokenizing real-world assets. Projects like Collector Crypt and Courtyard—such as those that tokenize Pokémon cards—let users trade real-world ownership on-chain, with the physical assets held in custody by the platform. This provides clear value support and reduces downside risk. There are also practical applications with real utility, such as NFT ticketing, DAO voting rights, and AI on-chain identity.

In plain terms, the NFT bubble has already burst, and the era of chasing meaningless little pictures is long gone. Now, capital is focusing more on assets with real utility, clear expectations of upward movement, or support from real-world assets. The players who are still holding on are also quietly adjusting their strategies—shifting from collectors to arbitrageurs, and from virtual to real. This market rebound looks like a recovery, but in reality it’s more like an internal redistribution of existing capital.