UAE involved in combat? Reports say they have carried out secret attacks on Iran, hitting an oil refinery on an island in the Persian Gulf in April.

Middle East Situation Once Again Shakes Up Crude Oil Markets.

After the US stock market closed on Monday, the 11th, Eastern Time, according to US media citing informed sources, the United Arab Emirates has been secretly conducting military strikes against Iran, including an attack in April that hit an oil refinery on Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf.

The report states that the UAE has long tried to maintain a relatively balanced stance between Iran and the West, but as Iran’s missile and drone attacks on UAE territory continue, impacting key industries such as aviation, tourism, and real estate, the UAE government’s strategic position is clearly shifting, increasingly inclined to use its advanced military forces to directly respond to Iran’s threats.

The report also mentions that the UAE has strengthened military cooperation with the United States and supports UN resolutions related to taking action to control the Strait of Hormuz from Iran.

Iran previously claimed that the refinery was attacked by enemies and retaliated with large-scale missile and drone strikes against the UAE and Kuwait. The above US media report confirms Iran’s accusations—that the UAE was the perpetrator of the attack—raising concerns about the escalation of this conflict and directly transmitting to the commodities markets.

Following reports of the UAE’s secret attack on Iran, international crude oil futures prices rose further, with market concerns about escalating conflicts in the Gulf region and risks of energy supply disruptions intensifying. US WTI crude oil broke above $98.80, up nearly 3.6% from last Friday’s close, while Brent crude once rose above $104.80, up nearly 3.5% from last week’s close.

Market analysts believe that the UAE’s direct involvement in military actions against Iran indicates that the confrontation between major Gulf oil producers and Iran is shifting from “defensive” to “offensive,” adding new variables to the already fragile situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation. If military conflict between Gulf major oil producers and Iran further escalates, risks to energy infrastructure and maritime shipping could continue to increase, pushing risk premiums higher. Previously, multiple media outlets reported that Iran and related armed forces had attacked energy facilities in the Gulf region, and Gulf countries have been increasingly taking a tough stance against Iran.

Analysts point out that compared to earlier market focus on direct confrontations between the US, Israel, and Iran, the exposure of the UAE’s direct participation in attacks on Iran signifies that the conflict is further “regionalized.” For the oil market, this means that supply disruption risks are no longer just theoretical tail events but are gradually evolving into tangible, ongoing risks that require continuous pricing.

UAE Becomes the Most Confrontational Actor in the Gulf Region

According to US media reports on Monday, the UAE’s military strike on Iran occurred in early April, coinciding with the period just before President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement after five weeks of airstrikes.

The UAE has not publicly admitted to the operation. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment on the attack but emphasized, citing previous statements, that it reserves the right to respond—including through military means—to hostile actions.

The Pentagon also declined to comment; the White House did not directly respond to UAE’s involvement, only stating that Trump has all options on the table and that the US maintains maximum pressure on the Iranian regime.

Since Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the UAE, the UAE has become the most assertive country in the Gulf region, maintaining close military cooperation with the US throughout the conflict, according to informed sources. Iran has launched over 2,800 missiles and drones at the UAE during the war, far exceeding any other country including Israel, severely impacting the UAE’s aviation, tourism, and real estate markets, and triggering large-scale layoffs and job cuts.

Gulf officials say these series of strikes have led the UAE to fundamentally reassess its strategic positioning, viewing Iran as a threat to its economic and social stability.

H.A. Hellyer, senior researcher at the renowned UK defense and security think tank Royal United Services Institute, stated: “The UAE has long made it clear that it does not want this war, but it is equally clear that since Iran first attacked the UAE, Abu Dhabi has quite frankly believed that a fundamental shift in regional dynamics has occurred. From the early stages of the war, it seems only a matter of time before Gulf countries increase direct military intervention.”

Military Capabilities and Favorable Timing for Engagement

Media reports indicate that since mid-March, speculation about UAE involvement has been rising—an aircraft that does not resemble Israeli or American jets was photographed over Iran. Tracking the images, researchers identified that the aircraft appeared to be French Mirage fighters used by the UAE military, executing missions inside Iran.

Retired US Air Force Brigadier General Dave Deptula, who planned the “Desert Storm” air campaign, said that the UAE has a highly trained air force equipped with Mirage fighters and advanced F-16 jets, along with refueling aircraft, command and control planes, and reconnaissance drones, “strong in precision strikes, air defense, aerial reconnaissance, aerial refueling, and logistics support.” He asked, “If you have such a powerful air force, why sit back and do nothing in response to Iran’s attacks?”

Retired Colonel John “JV” Venable, who commanded US Air Force operations at Al Udeid Base in Qatar, pointed out that after the US and Israel destroyed Iran’s air defense systems, the risks of flying over Iran’s airspace for combat missions have significantly decreased. He said, “If you’re an ally and want to get involved, now is a good time because the threat level is very low. Aircraft flying at medium and high altitudes can operate freely, and Iran has no effective way to stop them.”

Regional Power Dynamics Accelerate Restructuring, Diverging Positions

According to US media reports on Monday, Iran’s strategy of dragging Gulf countries into war has intensified political divisions among Arab monarchies and prompted all parties to seek new security arrangements. Anwar Gargash, presidential foreign policy adviser to the UAE, told reporters in April that although all Gulf states face rising security risks and harbor doubts about US protection commitments, the UAE has chosen to further strengthen its relationship with the US.

Beyond military actions, the UAE has supported a UN draft resolution authorizing the use of force if necessary to break Iran’s strategic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, domestically, the UAE has taken measures such as closing schools and clubs linked to Iran in Dubai and refusing visas and transit permits to Iranian citizens, further cutting off Iran’s long-standing economic lifeline through the UAE to evade Western sanctions.

Middle East analyst Dina Esfandiary stated: “For a Gulf Arab country to directly attack Iran as a belligerent is significant. Tehran will now seek to create further rifts between the UAE and other Gulf Arab states actively trying to mediate to end the war.”

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