Cocoa jumped more than 11% in one session as short-covering met renewed supply risks from West Africa.

📌 ICE cocoa rose sharply on May 11, pushing the July 2026 contract to around $4.66K–$4.70K per tonne. This was one of the most notable single-day moves since the extreme volatility period in 2024.
💡 The key point is that this rebound was not driven by a sudden surge in chocolate demand, but mainly by short-covering after a deep price decline. With funds holding large net-short exposure, a weaker USD and a technical breakout were enough to amplify buying pressure quickly.
⚠️ Supply risks still provide an important sentiment floor. Ivory Coast and Ghana continue to face weather uncertainty, uneven rainfall, and concerns that 2026/27 output may fall short of earlier expectations. StoneX cutting its global surplus forecast from 267,000 tonnes to 149,000 tonnes also makes it harder for the market to return to an overly bearish stance.
🔎 On the demand side, earnings from major chocolate companies still suggest consumer demand has not collapsed, but this is not the main driver of the current move. Cocoa should therefore be viewed more as a technical rebound supported by supply risk, rather than a confirmed new bullish cycle.
✅ In the short term, volatility may remain wide. If short-covering fades or the USD recovers, prices could retest the $4,200–$4,400 per tonne area; but if West African weather conditions worsen, cocoa could still see further sharp rebounds as the market remains highly sensitive to supply news.
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