Yesterday, while reviewing on-chain data, I noticed an interesting signal: Glassnode’s realized profit/loss ratio (RHODL Ratio) has fallen below 1. What does this indicator mean? Simply put, when investors are losing money, they sell their positions. The last time this happened was in 2022.

Based on historical patterns, this situation typically leads to a sustained loss period of at least half a year. Looking back at the 2022 bear market, in the six months after the indicator crashed, Bitcoin fell by roughly 25%. In 2018, it was even more extreme—dropping more than 50% within five months. So, theoretically, if history repeats itself, it could involve a downward cycle lasting more than five months.

What’s interesting is that, according to the MVRV pricing model, Bitcoin’s extreme low-value zone is around $43,760. Historically, this price level has often corresponded to the bottom of a bear market. Many analysts also predict that the bottom could be between $40,000 and $50,000. However, BTC is already up to over $80,000, which suggests that the pessimistic expectations back then didn’t come true—instead, a rebound played out. This also reminds us that while on-chain indicators can be a useful reference, the market will always find ways to surprise us.