I read the latest McKinsey report, and it really feels like the fintech industry has reached a true turning point. If the past era was one of endless growth, it seems accurate now to call this the Fifth Era, where profitability and regulatory compliance are key.

The most striking part is the market size outlook. This year, the global fintech market is $650 billion, and it is expected to grow to as much as $2 trillion by 2030. A growth rate that is 3.5 times faster than traditional banks is truly enormous. Since fintech currently accounts for only 4% of total financial services, it means there is still a great deal of room to grow.

By region, Latin America is growing the fastest. Over the past five years, it has grown at an average annual rate of 40%, and especially the lending business has increased by 50% each year. Meanwhile, North America is already the largest market at $310 billion, and it is expanding its business into capital markets and insurance. In the Asia-Pacific region, growth appears to be somewhat slowing due to regulatory impact.

McKinsey highlights four core trends in its report. First is the leading role of AI. Product development cycles are being shortened from years to months, and services such as affordable asset management advisory are becoming mainstream. It’s interesting that large companies are moving in the opposite direction—toward consolidation—and are acting as intermediaries.

Second is the rise of digital assets. It’s expected that stablecoins—currently with an issuance amount of $300 billion—will grow to $2–4 trillion by 2030. Annual transaction volume is $35 trillion, but only about 1% is actually used for payments, making it clear that activity is still centered on trading and arbitrage. However, the trend is that real usage is increasing in areas such as overseas remittances, payments between businesses, and capital market settlements.

Third is competition for banking licenses. This year, the United States alone received 21 new license applications. If processing times have also been reduced by 40%, that means barriers to entering the industry are lowering. However, after obtaining a license, companies face direct regulatory pressure, and another important point is that the way companies are valued could shift from tech stock multiples to traditional bank multiples.

Fourth is the rapid rise of B2B fintech. Instead of providing direct services to consumers, the horizontal model of supplying software and infrastructure to traditional financial institutions accounts for 13% of industry revenue. In the UK insurtech sector, this jumped from 25% in 2021 to 91% in 2024—an extremely rapid transformation.

McKinsey’s analysis of future growth drivers includes six key areas: digital asset infrastructure, AI agents, data infrastructure, AI-based asset management, horizontal insurtech, and identity and trust infrastructure. In particular, it’s interesting that the expected solution to the most costly duplication problem is the identity verification and compliance layer.

The common traits of successful companies ultimately come down to economics, trust, product quality, and the ability to comply with regulations. As McKinsey also emphasized, while technical barriers are lowering, business model barriers are rising. This means that it’s not just about improving UI; what’s needed is a breakthrough in economics, speed, and risk management.

Personally, the biggest lesson this report offers is that the fintech industry has entered a mature phase. You can no longer attract investment with just interesting stories and funding as in the past. Now, actual profitability and the ability to comply with regulations are the differentiators. Traditional financial institutions have recognized this and are expanding their technology investments, while fintech companies are also moving to secure long-term competitiveness by obtaining banking licenses. Ultimately, it seems this industry is moving beyond an endless cutthroat race for survival and into an era of sustainable growth based on regulation and trust.