I recently reviewed an analysis of Bitcoin's 10-year trend, and I realized that the market behavior in April almost entirely follows seasonal patterns. Over the years, Bitcoin has indeed performed relatively strongly in April, and this year's rally is no exception, aligning closely with historical data.

But there's an interesting phenomenon here. Although the seasonal pattern is so obvious, the market hadn't formed a strong bullish consensus before April. I noticed that the sentiment at the time was quite optimistic, but traders' positions didn't follow suit—trading volume was sluggish, and funding rates remained negative. In other words, everyone was watching from the sidelines; no one dared to really increase their bets.

This cautious attitude persisted into May. When Bitcoin re-claimed the $80k level, many investors felt a bit caught off guard. This precisely illustrates a problem: the market hadn't been fully positioned beforehand, and most people's holdings still lagged behind the trend.

Looking at historical data, May has also been a relatively stable month for Bitcoin. Over the past 10 years, the average return in May has been about 10.3%, with 6 of those years seeing gains. Of course, history doesn't guarantee future results, but from a probability perspective, this provides some seasonal support for May's market performance.

The current question is, if these patterns in Bitcoin's 10-year trend are so clear, why is the market still reacting slowly? I think it's probably because people still have some doubts about the seasonal effects themselves, or perhaps there's asymmetric information. However, this recent performance is definitely worth paying attention to, especially for those who want to understand the logic behind market movements.