No one dares to lend $10 billion; SoftBank's OpenAI margin loan target lowered to $6 billion

Why Are AI Lenders Worried About OpenAI’s Non-Listed Valuation?

SoftBank’s financing plan secured by OpenAI equity faces resistance, leading to a significant scale-down, reflecting deep market doubts about AI investment returns.

On Friday, according to Bloomberg citing sources, SoftBank has reduced the target size of this collateral loan from $10 billion to at least $6 billion, a 40% decrease. Previously, some potential lenders expressed concerns about how to value this non-listed company, causing the original plan to stall.

This change occurs amid underlying pressures on OpenAI’s fundamentals. OpenAI failed to meet monthly sales targets multiple times early in 2026, and competitors like Anthropic continue to erode its share in programming and enterprise markets. The company also did not achieve its internal goal of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of last year.

In response, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar rebutted, stating that the company is meeting its targets and seeing “vertical growth” in product demand.

Lender Concerns: Valuation Challenges for Non-Listed Companies

According to Bloomberg citing sources, SoftBank and its appointed banks have lowered the target amount to $6 billion in recent weeks during separate negotiations with potential lenders. Discussions are ongoing, and final loan size and details may still change.

The core obstacle is valuation. Some investors involved in the $10 billion loan have doubts about how to reasonably value OpenAI as a non-listed company. Potential lenders include private credit firms, financial institutions, and hedge funds, with negotiations starting as early as mid-March.

SoftBank’s AI Bet: Debt Continues to Grow

SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is seeking to position himself as a central hub in the global AI wave, even if it means taking on substantial debt. The group recently committed an additional $30 billion to OpenAI, on top of over $30 billion already invested. In March, SoftBank completed a $40 billion loan, setting a record for its dollar loan scale, with some funds used to support the latest co-investment in OpenAI.

Meanwhile, debates over whether massive AI investments can generate sufficient short-term returns are intensifying, adding to market concerns about SoftBank’s credit health.

Market Signals Diverge: Rising Stock Prices, Increasing Credit Risks

Capital markets show a clear split in views on SoftBank. On one hand, SoftBank’s stock has risen 39% this year, outperforming the Japan benchmark Topix index’s 12.3% gain; on the other hand, the cost of hedging its debt credit risk continues to rise, with the credit default swap spread widening by about 61 basis points this year.

Rating agencies are also cautious. In March, S&P Global downgraded SoftBank’s outlook from “Stable” to “Negative,” citing concerns that investments in OpenAI could impair the company’s liquidity and asset quality.

The divergence between equity and debt markets reflects investors’ complex attitude toward SoftBank’s AI strategy—optimistic about its strategic positioning but wary of its financial risks.