Recently, I noticed a pretty interesting phenomenon—everyone is worried about a repeat of the oil crisis, with soaring oil prices leading to an economic collapse. But in reality, what we should really be afraid of might be completely different.

A while ago, I saw economist Steve Hanke from Johns Hopkins University discussing this topic, and his perspective surprised me a bit. He’s right—compared to the 1978-1979 oil crisis, the current risks are actually lower. Why? Because the global economic structure has changed over the past decades—Iran’s oil production has dropped from 8.5% of the world’s total at that time to 5.2%, while U.S. production has actually increased from 15.6% to 18.9%. Most importantly, our dependence on oil has significantly decreased—oil consumption per unit of GDP has fallen from 1.5% to 0.4%. In other words, the modern economy is less vulnerable to an oil crisis.

But that doesn’t mean there are no risks. The real vulnerability right now isn’t the energy market, but the stock market. The numbers are clear—back in 1978, the stock market’s price-to-earnings ratio was 8, and now? It’s around 28 to 29. That’s a bubble. When the market is at such high valuations, any external shock—war, geopolitical risks—could trigger a chain reaction.

Regarding oil prices themselves, Hanke’s analysis is also very interesting. He believes inflation isn’t caused by rising oil prices, but by expanding money supply. Japan’s example illustrates this well: during the 1973 oil crisis, the Bank of Japan increased the money supply, resulting in both rising oil prices and inflation; but during the second oil crisis in 1979, they refused to increase the money supply, so oil prices rose without accompanying inflation. This offers a lesson for the Federal Reserve’s current policies—after they stopped quantitative tightening in December last year, they actually started quantitative easing, which is the real hidden danger of inflation.

As for the so-called “de-dollarization” claims? Hanke bluntly dismisses them as garbage talk. The data is clear—last year, net investment inflows into the U.S. increased by 31%, the dollar strengthened significantly against the euro, and after the war broke out, the dollar even further appreciated. It’s evident that capital is still flowing into the U.S. nonstop, and there’s no sign of de-dollarization.

Finally, regarding the Middle East situation, Hanke’s view is that it’s already out of control. About 60% of U.S.-backed regime change attempts have completely failed, and the rest have left messes behind. Now, the U.S. is caught up in a policy destined to fail, with huge costs—not just economic and military, but also political. The assassinated Iranian leaders will become martyrs in the Muslim world, and in the long run, the U.S. is creating a large number of enemies for itself.

So, instead of worrying about an oil crisis, it’s more important to focus on the stock market bubble and central bank policies. History shows us that the real crisis often isn’t where you initially think it is.