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Recently, I’ve been keeping an eye on next week’s market rhythm, and there are definitely a few things worth noting. The US-Iran situation is still at a standoff. Trump’s side says the conditions proposed by Iran are unacceptable, but many traders are speculating whether this is just a standard negotiation tactic, and hopes for peace haven’t completely disappeared yet.
However, what can truly shake the market is the economic data that will be released soon. Next Friday’s non-farm payroll report is the main event. The forecast is that it will add 60k new jobs, wage growth may accelerate, and the unemployment rate will remain steady. This non-farm data will directly affect the Federal Reserve’s subsequent policy direction, so the market’s reaction to it is always highly sensitive.
Besides the non-farm payrolls, there will be a host of Federal Reserve officials speaking throughout the week. On Tuesday, New York Fed President Williams will take the floor. On Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will discuss the economic outlook. On Thursday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will also join the discussion. On Friday, Cleveland Fed President Harker is set to deliver remarks again. Taken together, these comments will send the market a lot of signals.
In addition, keep an eye on leading indicators such as ADP employment data, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and job openings data. The initial reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is also important, as it can reflect ordinary people’s expectations for the economy. Wholesale sales data will influence the assessment of inflation expectations.
To be honest, after all this data and commentary next week, it’s still hard to say whether the non-farm report will genuinely bring a market breakthrough. But either way, there are plenty of highlights in the market this week, and they’re definitely worth tracking closely.