Recently, the CEO of VanEck shared an interesting analysis. They believe Bitcoin’s price isn’t driven by market sentiment alone—it follows a very structured cycle.

The core points are twofold: one is the supply fixed at 21 million coins, and the other is the halving event that happens every four years. With each halving, the block reward miners receive is cut in half, which has a significant impact on the Bitcoin market.

There’s an intriguing pattern. Typically, prices keep rising steadily for three years and then drop sharply in the fourth year. And 2026 is precisely that fourth year. The reason the overall cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, is currently trending bearish is believed to be due to this halving cycle.

What’s notable here is the CEO’s assessment that as the halving approaches, the market is hitting bottom. Bitcoin is currently trading around $81.82K, and they view it as a very positive recovery signal. That’s because, historically, the deeper the bear market, the stronger the rally after the halving tends to be.

In the end, understanding the halving cycle is the key to reading the Bitcoin market. Rather than getting shaken by short-term volatility, it’s important to follow this structural rhythm.