These past few days, Luna's ecosystem tokens have been going crazy, with LUNC rising 1.5 times and USTC quadrupling. I originally planned not to touch this topic anymore, but recently many people have asked me whether they can chase or play with it, so I’ve decided to delve into the truth behind it.

First, let’s talk about what USTC is — it’s the same as LUNC, both are remnants after the Terra collapse. USTC was originally a stablecoin for UST, while LUNC is Luna Classic. Now both have become purely speculative tools. The recent surge is actually quite interesting.

An anonymous hacker group threatened to reveal evidence of Do Kwon’s alleged fraud, claiming they have sufficient proof that Luna’s collapse was not just a business failure but a deliberate scam. This was initially a big negative news, but it instead became a catalyst for the coin’s price to rise. Why? Because old Luna holders have long hated Do Kwon, and the hacker’s threat triggered a “enemy of my enemy is my friend” consensus — everyone is hoping for some retribution for the founder.

This is what I think is the most worth warning about. The reason why LUNC is easily manipulated by whales boils down to two core factors. First, Luna’s notoriety still remains. When it collapsed, it was a huge event, and many people entered the crypto space because of Luna, so there are still many holders with emotional ties to it. Second, its market cap has dropped from the top ten to 210th place, with extremely low liquidity. This means whales don’t need much capital to push the price up or down.

I looked at the official Twitter’s recent statements, all about new Luna 2.0, completely abandoning the old chain. Do Kwon hasn’t spoken since recently, probably already caught up in legal trouble. This clearly indicates that the official has no intention of maintaining the old LUNC; it’s now purely a gambling chip.

The most critical factor is the whale movements. I’ve observed that large holders are not adding to their LUNC positions; instead, they are extremely cautious. This shows that the current market main force is retail investors. Under these circumstances, whales can dump the price at any moment without warning, and retail investors have no way to predict it. Bitcoin is adjusting around the 20k mark, the US stock market dropped over 3% yesterday, but LUNC is surging against the trend in this environment. This isn’t supported by fundamentals — it’s just a manipulation by the big players.

Some say LUNC will rise to 1 dollar. I just want to ask one question — look at its current circulating supply of 55 trillion, and calculate how much capital would be needed to reach 1 dollar? Then consider the current capital outflow in the entire crypto market. You’ll understand how unrealistic this target is.

I’ve always advised everyone not to touch Luna, and here’s why. You have no way to judge when whales will dump using conventional analysis methods unless you have enough capital to act as a whale yourself. Retail investors are just the targets for being harvested. What USTC is, what LUNC is — in the end, they’re just chips in the hands of whales. Those chasing high will end up as bagholders — that’s my advice.