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[Taogu8]

To the brothers who liked this, your accounts will soar tomorrow; to those who didn’t like it, you’re just too clever, and tomorrow you’ll be the first to be flagged during the bidding. Especially those who took the red envelopes and unfollowed—don’t even mention it—Yingfeng didn’t hit the limit down, but your account did; the index didn’t collapse, but your account collapsed first; missed the main rise, and when the tide recedes, you’re left behind.

Many people’s confusion: “Why can others always catch the main rise, but I get trapped as soon as I buy?” Because true big-picture awareness isn’t about rushing in during the climax, but about seeing the risks early when everyone is excited.

Today, I will thoroughly break it down for you.

Yuanbao Big Picture:

Last night I had stomach issues, was in terrible pain, and woke up late this morning, so【Yuanbao Morning Trading】was a bit late, and I’ll explain the big picture in detail—why I expect this week’s intense volatility? True trading is never about reacting on the spot. It’s about pre-emptive deduction.

The index, as most wish, broke through 4197 points, and a fourth gap appeared on the daily chart, but the market is divided into a 2-8 split, seemingly worry-free, continuing to volume-up along the 5-day moving average, but on the weekly chart, a divergence structure has formed—that’s a technical pattern. It’s incredibly strong.

Secondly, there are many external factors this week. Today is the inauguration of the new Federal Reserve Chair, tomorrow’s CPI data release, the day after is speech and remarks, Thursday is the Fed’s balance sheet release, and Friday is when Xi Jinping comes to meet us.

What does the stacking of these events mean? It means funds cannot blindly push higher without restraint.

Let me simulate the most perfect index scenario: Captain Liang stabilizes the market, filling two gaps downward, meaning holding above 4000 points steadily, controlling the market until late May or early June, then a new main rise begins. Through sideways consolidation, it can consume some floating positions in the “believe in the light” series and also open some space for thematic speculation below.

Real big funds are never about making everyone easy money.

Instead, at your most euphoric moment, they punch you, wash out all the skeptics, and then start the next wave of main rise. The golden opportunity in March is right in front of us. I’ve earnestly said the bull market is still here, but clowns say it will fall to 3000 points—that’s a difference in cognition.

So, the most important thing now isn’t how much higher the index can go, but whether you can establish risk awareness before the key nodes arrive.

You can calculate how many main rise cycles have occurred since 3478, and you’ll understand how I arrived at this estimate. Instead of just feeding you the result, it’s better to review the K-line yourself; the reasoning is very simple.

No need to discuss short-term responses now. Last week I talked about using Dongshan Precision to do three types of deductions, and the subsequent anchoring remains unchanged—just respond accordingly.

Yuanbao Sentiment:

The trading volume directly hit 3.5 trillion, maintaining peak volume. Many only see one sentence: “Market turnover 3.5 trillion,” and automatically translate it as “Bull market is here, buy blindly.”

But if you look carefully at the market’s rise and fall, the number of stocks up more than 5% is 484, which isn’t enough to open up a profit-taking effect. Also, I saw a data point: 50 stocks with a market cap over 100 billion and a 10-day gain of more than 10%. The accumulated market value increase is around 3.1-3.5 trillion, meaning a lot of profit-taking has already occurred. Meanwhile, the median market gain is only 0.3%, which indicates that the stocks with actual profit potential are once again being squeezed. So, entering at this position to sell high is extremely reasonable.

It’s no longer the stage of “widespread gains,” but the real test of understanding, rhythm, and position control.

The most dangerous type now is those who get euphoric at big rises, fantasize at peaks, and rush when others are making money—often becoming the last to catch the phase.

Today’s market, consistent with Yuanbao’s early prediction, shows tech stocks opening high and then being absorbed back. From a very short-term perspective, it’s predictable, but you must always keep a string in your mind: as you approach key nodes, it’s easier for things to go wrong, and you might be the unlucky last one.

Let’s also look at the recently emphasized inverse index. The theme stocks that follow the index are reaching new highs and hitting the freezing point of groupings, with various external news acting as catalysts. Meanwhile, the inverse index hits the bottom, corresponding to the excitement peaks of the index and sentiment, such as the acceleration phase of the index.

Currently, with the index continuing to rise and tech stocks staying hot, combined with unscrupulous media and XDD’s verbal sparring, the May Day period marks the freezing point of inverse index groupings.

So, if you think the index will dip in the second half of the week, go against the index and fight the freezing point. Wait for the index to adjust, then see how much the inverse index recovers. Conversely, if you believe the index will surge to 4500 or even 5000, then sell aggressively—win big, enjoy the villa by the sea; lose, and just go down to be a pawn.

Quantitative Model: If you’re unclear about principles, go review “Iterative Survival: Quantitative Models Take Over Trading.” Don’t learn from others. If you can’t learn, you’ll lose, and then you’ll be crying and howling. When you do, I get a headache.

Big Tech: Opened high but was realized, yet twice strongly supported at the flat line with slight volume increase. Considering the upcoming subjective nodes, tomorrow’s ultra-short perspective should still follow the 10-minute rule. Let me also briefly explain its logic.

Its subsidiary Senhua Yiteng launched a Token factory, a profit-sharing model that was already tested in Runjian. That’s one. The ByteDance project in Zhangbei will start ramping up in Q2, nearing a turning point—that’s two. Over the weekend, ByteDance’s most intense bidding, and ByteDance is heavily involved in chips and AIDC domestically and abroad—that’s three. I’ll stop at three points; the more I write, the more it might deepen readers’ subjective obsession. I don’t want to keep rambling. When it falls, I hold; when it rises a bit, I dream of doubling. Trading isn’t about faith; it’s about rhythm.

The Bottom Line:

Observe the indicators.

Iverson: Those with patience keep observing; those without patience should take profits and leave. Trading is never about who buys faster, but who can hold out longer. From the start of observation to now, the increase has been 13%. Those with intent don’t need to be taught.

Runjian Shares: After two consecutive days of volume, today’s surge was expected. This is where the cost advantage shows. Attack or defend, just follow the 5-day moving average. From the bottom to today, even if you saw it in the morning of the 6th【additional morning note】, taking 30% profit is no problem.

Digital China: Beneficiary of Intel’s price hikes, combined with Ascend’s attributes. I saw some comments praising it: during the price hike cycle, the company’s distribution profits accelerated; the latter attribute comes from Digital China Kun Tai’s super-node servers, which is part of the domestic Ascend computing power deployment.

Shenzhen Huaqiao: Last Friday after-hours, I said everything that needed to be said. The controlling funds are quantitative. If you can’t tolerate volatility, don’t mess around inside. I am definitely the first to popularize this on Taogu8. Not sure how many brothers have freeloaded, but manage your own positions later.

Changchuan Technology: Haha, remember the interaction last night? Why did I ask if Changchuan is expensive? Because I saw a short-term breakout and a long-term logical change. Today, it hit a perfect 20%, quite interesting.

The subsequent operations are very simple. I replied in the comments: wait for a dip below the moving average to exit, then re-enter when it hits key moving averages combined with sideways consolidation. I have a good idea of what price it can reach.

Dinglong Shares: Not within my observation scope. Replying to brothers’ questions, it’s high-end photoresist. As far as I know, over 20 products are already in sample review, with 5 entering mass production. The high-grade Arf resist has passed verification, belonging to the top tier of domestic photoresists.

Yuan Qi Full: Hot Sector

Computing Power: I’ll start with this. Remember when we fought in March? Some trolls kept questioning the logic of domestic computing power in the comments. I directly blocked them. I wonder how they feel now?

Today, the four giants of computing power are all adjusting. Some link this adjustment to Xi’s visit to China—pure fantasy. The real reason is that the core has already overextended, and then stories start to emerge. Just like the March 20 incident with Zhi Chuang Data being falsely smeared, the market’s response is always marginally diminishing. Then, Zhi Chuang Data dropped 15%, but today, the story of U.S. chips smuggling through Thailand to Alibaba caused a bottoming rebound.

Is smuggling risky? Yes, it is. But do we still need a bull market? What is the underlying logic of this tech bull run?

Are these current computing power companies different from Hongbo Shares, Gaoxin Development, Hainan Huatie?

Go review, find your own answers, think for yourself. I’ll outline the big picture; you fill in the details.

Short-term response remains the same. All my observations on computing power emphasize the bottom, urging you to pay attention. If you ignored it and messed around, that’s on you. Today, the sector wants to rebound strongly; if it doesn’t, it’s not a bad thing. Tomorrow, two anchors: first, today’s positive point is Zhimei Intelligent, which is resilient; the sector needs its stance to rebound. Second, the negative point is Yingfeng Environment, which needs to hold above the 10-day moving average and not drag down the market.

Commercial Aviation: Based on SPX expectations, hype the largest IPO in history. The A-share hype still follows the old pattern—finding upstream and downstream suppliers, with Xinwei Communication being the most certain, followed by Western Materials, then Lansi Technology and Maiwei Shares.

Battery: Trend stocks show signs of stabilizing, like Tanhua and Rongjie, which didn’t fake a breakout after pulling back to the 10-day line. When sentiment weakens, it turns strong again. Tomorrow, it’s best to rebound during sector divergences, to re-establish recognition.

Your Wish Fulfilled:

China Great Wall + Jin Tanglang: Both discussed together. The former’s opening was as expected; the latter turned strong with an opening gap, supported by funds. But Tanglang’s rise didn’t help push Great Wall higher, which was very disappointing during the session. Even a small attempt to push higher would have been better. After two consecutive adjustments, Great Wall can only be viewed at the 5-day moving average.

Sun Yang Shares + Jin Tanglang: Also discussed together. The former is a common pattern for passing through the second wave, with a limit-up the next day after coming out. I’ve seen this pattern before, but I can’t remember who did it. Also, note their relationship: when Sun Yang rose in the afternoon, it pulled Jin Tanglang sharply in the minute chart. So, these two might have a short-term seesaw relationship, especially since they emerged from high-low switching nodes.

That’s all for now. I’ll settle the last missed live broadcast this Friday at 8 pm. Please give some reminders to broadcast it; I suggest everyone listen because there’s probably no replay. Reserve it on my homepage!

The live content is about the road of A-shares; you can listen as a story session. Most importantly, I will directly point out the underlying logic of this round of the tech bull market!

Finally, if you don’t know what to post in the comments, just send eight characters like【Yuanbao Morning Trading】, which is the topic~【Friday Live, Reserve Your Spot】!

12 top oil brothers, thank you for turning the previous main post into a fine piece! @javxsp@DengGaowangChuan@ThisBattleIsFamous@GuYinYuanTingShen@YeyeCaiLai@CoffeeShakes@SixStringSolo@AskHaiLu@MaFeiWangLaoTou@XiyuA@YuXiaoQi@ZhuoZhuo335

Respect is always mutual. You trust me, I protect you; you lift me, I lift you. The grassland is vast, but it only passes those with fate. Walking together is fate. Thanks to all brothers for your support and tips. @WangQingRen @DengGaowangChuan @ZhuoZhuo335 @FirstLoveOldFriend @DianShang4 @XiyuA @GuguChen @ShunShiWeiWang1986 @ImpossibleName @YuXiaoQi @ChivesGirl @TodayCoffee? @PorkPig123 @AnZhiTingYin @VoldemortW @MeetMyselfLtt @ShuiTang @AdrianSouth @ZhuLang @LowKeyDudu @GoKGoK @HaiYanShui @LemonVinegar @HighPositionBuyInYT @lclx @Unhappy3 @Kalen007 @CoffeeShakes @ShenAoAugustus @BraveAddPosition @BrokenBoard @FreebieKing @AskHaiLu @SheDe7777 @BigButtShameCloth @Queener

Today’s respect goes to @AskHaiLu. Congrats, brother, on donning the golden armor. Many are watching me, but most are freeloaders. Just like how many have freeloaded on Changchuan Technology! Respect!