Recently, I saw someone using the stablecoin supply curve combined with ETF net inflows to start drawing causal chains. Honestly, I feel a bit uncomfortable... Correlation can be very deceiving. An increase in stablecoins could mean people are entering the market, or it could just be that everyone is parking their money on the chain and waiting for opportunities; ETF inflows don’t necessarily mean they’re immediately throwing risk positions into the market. Who knows if the off-chain funds are just circling around. Plus, with recent expectations of rate cuts, the dollar index, and other factors, the discussion about risk assets rising and falling together is quite loud. But when macro sentiment kicks in, people are more likely to mistake “happening at the same time” for “cause and effect.” I tend to see simplicity as a trap: when I see a phrase like “funds are coming in,” my first reaction isn’t excitement, but to check the source, the path, and whether the authorization has been increased. Anyway, habitual trust is the most dangerous.