Recently, I came across a very interesting on-chain data analysis. Crypto analyst Axel pointed out in his research that we might currently be in a long-term accumulation phase of a bear market.

His core view is as follows: Since Bitcoin surged to nearly $125k last October to hit a new all-time high, the bear market cycle has already begun. Using the Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator, this metric reached a cycle high of 0.02676 in December last year, and then started to reverse downward. This signal is very critical.

Why is it worth paying attention to? Because historically, every time this indicator reverses, it enters a long accumulation period. Axel compared the past two bear market cycles: the 2020 bear lasted 1.1 years, while the 2022-2024 cycle dragged on for 2.5 years. The initiation methods were exactly the same—green line reversing from the peak, followed by a price decline.

The current pattern almost perfectly replicates the historical model. If history repeats, this bear market accumulation phase will last at least until the end of next year, with a more realistic expectation extending into mid-2027. This means the bear market could be longer than many people expect.

But don’t be too pessimistic; the key is to watch a specific signal: when the 90-day moving average reverses downward and falls below the 365-day moving average (target at 0.02622). Before this crossover signal appears, there is still a possibility of a mid-term reset and a restart of the rally. So, the exact duration of the bear market depends on this technical confirmation.

Overall, this analysis reminds us to be patient; the bear market cycle could be longer than expected. But also remember, no bear market lasts forever—what matters most is waiting for those confirmation signals to appear.