At 3 a.m., the moment my phone started bombarding me with notifications, my adrenaline surged instantly. “U.S.-Iran joint action,” “Iran attacked”—the moment those words appeared, I almost reflexively opened the market app. My finger hovered above the screen, and my heartbeat was several beats faster than usual. The candlestick chart thrashed violently under the impact of the news—really, that feeling of rising adrenaline is never exactly the same every time.

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin went through a typical geopolitical pressure test. The price played a rollercoaster ride between $64,000 and $68,000, and more than $100 million in long-leverage positions was liquidated within 15 minutes. It reminded me of the scene when the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022—first a sharp drop, then a quick rebound, followed by prolonged consolidation. But this time, something was different.

What’s most interesting is that Bitcoin’s performance completely upended the traditional understanding of “digital gold.” In theory, Bitcoin should play the role of a safe haven during turmoil; instead, it fell at first, just like Nasdaq tech stocks. Why is that? I think the core reason lies in changes to the structure of market participants.

With the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, a large influx of funds from traditional financial institutions entered the market. The managers at these institutions use strict risk-control models—any event that could trigger a chain reaction across global markets will activate their deleveraging buttons. I checked the exchanges’ on-chain data: within the first hour after the news broke, more than 30,000 BTC was transferred from institutional custody wallets to exchanges—typically a sign that selling is coming. At the same time, gold prices were up by about 1.2%. This divergence clearly shows that, in the eyes of traditional fund managers, Bitcoin’s risk-asset label temporarily overshadowed the “safe-haven” halo.

Leverage amplified everything in this event. Total open interest across the entire crypto market is still at historic highs, and Bitcoin futures alone exceed $30 billion. Any sudden news could trigger a chain of liquidations. I also remember the crash on May 19, 2021—similar domino liquidations caused Bitcoin to drop 30% in a single day. This time, although the magnitude is smaller, the mechanism is exactly the same: falling prices trigger long liquidations; forced selling accelerates the decline; more positions get triggered, creating a negative feedback loop. That feeling of adrenaline surging gets infinitely intensified with every liquidation wave.

Interestingly, after the liquidation wave, bargain-hunting capital quickly showed up in the market. When Bitcoin fell to around $63,000, multiple addresses flagged as whales began making large purchases—most individual transactions were between 500 and 1,000 BTC. These buyers treated the drop caused by the geopolitical conflict as a discounted opportunity.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a delicate position. The $60,000 to $62,000 area is an important psychological and technical support zone—here are the lows from multiple previous pullbacks, and also the average cost area for many long-term investors. Above that, $70,000 is a strong resistance level. Over the past two months, Bitcoin tried to break above it three times, and all three attempts failed, forming a clear triple-top pattern. The geopolitical conflict makes breaking through $70,000 even harder.

One key metric is Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index, which has recently stayed above 0.7—meaning that as long as tech stocks are under pressure, Bitcoin is hard to stand alone.

Historical references are never perfect. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the Fed had just started raising interest rates, and market liquidity was abundant. Today, even if a rate-cut cycle may be approaching, interest rates are still at a 20-year high, and global liquidity overall remains tight. In this environment, risk assets are relatively less resilient to shocks. Another difference is Bitcoin’s own cycle position. In 2022, Bitcoin was in the early stage of a bear market; but currently, after a six-month halving correction, from a cycle perspective it should be in an upward channel. The collision of these two cycle forces makes forecasting especially difficult.

If you ask me about my strategy, I would suggest this: first, reduce leverage—at times of extremely high uncertainty, high leverage is essentially suicide. I’ve already closed all my contract positions and only keep spot. Second, build your position in stages—don’t try to buy the bottom all at once. You can set a laddered buying plan, such as buying a portion every time it drops 5%. Third, keep an eye on alternative narratives. Geopolitical conflict may accelerate discussions about de-dollarization, which is actually positive for Bitcoin’s long-term narrative, but in the short term you need to first digest the emotional impact. Finally, prepare for the worst—ask yourself whether your portfolio could still withstand a drop of Bitcoin to $50,000, and then adjust your positions based on the answer.

The five most expensive words in investing are “this time is different.” But in every crisis, the biggest profit opportunities are often hidden behind those five words. The 2018 trade war, the 2020 pandemic, the 2022 war—whenever the market panicked, those investors who stayed calm and acted based on long-term logic ultimately reaped substantial returns.

With the current market volatility, rather than saying it’s a stress test for Bitcoin, it’s more like a test of investors’ mental fortitude. Geopolitical black swans will never disappear, but Bitcoin has been running for 15 years—surviving countless doomsday predictions—and still moving forward. No matter how the price swings in the short term, I still believe that, in an increasingly divided world, a global, censorship-resistant, scarce digital asset’s long-term value logic is being reinforced rather than weakened. That’s the appeal of cryptocurrency investing—always exciting, never boring.