#Gate广场五月交易分享 What recent news has impacted the movement of gold and crude oil? How should we analyze the bullish or bearish outlook for gold in the near future?

On Monday (May 11), the market opened with a gap down, dropping nearly $50 to $4,670.26 per ounce, while crude oil (WTI) opened sharply higher, with a maximum increase of over 3.66%, reaching $98.85 per barrel. On the surface, this appears to be a tug-of-war effect triggered by geopolitical conflicts, but deeper down, it reflects a three-way struggle among global inflation expectations, the US dollar trend, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
In the short term, gold prices are under pressure, but geopolitical risks and shifts in Fed policy still support its medium- to long-term allocation value.
This week, US CPI data will be a key indicator.
The upcoming US April CPI and PPI data will be the focus this week. Additionally, the consumer confidence index has fallen to a historic low of 48.2 due to rising gasoline prices, reflecting the real drag of high oil prices on the real economy.
In the long run, if geopolitical conflicts cannot be quickly resolved, sustained high oil prices will continue to test global economic resilience and also provide potential safe-haven support for gold.
Last week, gold also achieved a weekly increase due to market optimism about US-Iran talks, with spot gold rising by a total of 2.15%, briefly closing near $4,715. However, after the reversal on Monday, gold quickly gapped down. This "expectation rise, reality fall" pattern highlights that gold is currently more like a "risk asset" rather than a traditional safe haven asset.
High oil prices directly push up global inflation expectations. Rising energy costs transmit to transportation, manufacturing, and other sectors, further intensifying market concerns that the Fed will maintain high interest rates or delay rate cuts. The US dollar index is thus supported, while gold, which does not generate interest, faces holding costs.
Moreover, US April non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations (adding 115k jobs, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%), reinforcing labor market resilience and reducing the likelihood of significant easing by the Fed this year. Analysts point out that current gold trading logic is highly tied to the easing prospects of Iran. When energy prices fall and inflation concerns ease, rate cut expectations rebound, supporting gold; otherwise, it faces selling pressure. The sharp decline in gold prices this week is a direct reflection of this logic.
Considering the current situation, gold will still face some short-term adjustment pressure. The risk premium caused by the breakdown of US-Iran talks is flowing more into oil and the dollar rather than gold. However, this divergence is not irreversible. Once substantial progress is made in a ceasefire, oil prices fall, or the Fed signals marginal easing, the rebound momentum of gold will quickly return.
From a longer-term perspective, geopolitical uncertainties, high global debt levels, and central bank gold purchases continue to support gold’s strategic allocation value. Although current gold prices have pulled back, as long as key support levels are maintained, there is still potential to find upward opportunities amid repeated risk events.
Overall, this gold price plunge results from a reversal of geopolitical conflict expectations combined with macroeconomic data resonance. Investors should closely monitor US inflation data this week, subsequent US-Iran statements, and potential diplomatic developments during Trump’s visit to China. For the gold market, short-term volatility will intensify, but the medium- to long-term logic remains intact.
May 11 Gold Market Trend Analysis:
Technical analysis of gold: The new week opened with a gap down in early trading, influenced by last Friday’s strong non-farm payroll data, with the dollar remaining firm. Gold opened slightly lower and experienced minor declines, maintaining a high-level oscillation with a slight weakness. Last Friday, gold closed near $4,715; this morning, it gapped down to around $4,700, then oscillated to recover. Currently, the lowest retracement is around $4,680. Given last week’s poor weekly close, the opening shows that bullish momentum has weakened, and selling pressure is increasing.
From the daily chart, although gold rose for four consecutive days last week, breaking through the middle band and testing the 100-day moving average twice, both times it was met with resistance and pulled back, indicating limited bullish strength. The MACD remains above zero but shows weakening red momentum bars, suggesting that bullish strength is waning. The KDJ indicator has formed a death cross at high levels and is diverging downward, indicating a short-term correction is needed.
Above, the $4,750–$4,760 zone is a strong resistance area. If gold cannot break and hold this zone, bulls will struggle to regain control. Below, the $4,600 mark is an important support level; a close below this could trigger a new downward trend.
The 4-hour chart shows a clear oscillation pattern, with candlesticks alternating between bullish and bearish signals, indicating a balanced battle between buyers and sellers. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with prices near the middle band. The 5- and 10-period moving averages are converging downward, and the MACD shows a bearish crossover in the overbought zone with increasing green bars, suggesting a short-term bearish trend.
For intraday trading, consider short positions primarily. The gap at the open around $4,710–$4,715 is a key level; last week’s close was near $4,715. The strategy is to short at this level with a stop-loss above $4,730 to avoid a gap fill and further decline. Wait for a rebound to fill the gap before considering new shorts.
In summary, today’s short-term trading plan recommends mainly short positions on rebounds, with some long positions on dips. Focus on resistance at $4,710–$4,720 and support at $4,600–$4,580. Traders should strictly control position sizes and stop-losses, avoiding against-the-market operations. Real-time levels are crucial; welcome to join for live updates and group discussions.
May 11 Gold Trading Strategy Reference:
Short position strategy:
Strategy 1: Short on rebounds near $4,705–$4,715 in batches (buy dips), with a 2/10 position size, stop-loss at $4,730, target around $4,650–$4,600, and a break below to $4,580. (This strategy is time-sensitive; more detailed implementation suggestions are shared internally with DingTalk real trading students.)
Long position strategy:
Strategy 2: Buy on dips near $4,580–$4,590 in batches (buy rises), with a 2/10 position size, stop-loss at $4,560, target around $4,620–$4,650, and a break above to $4,670.
Risk warning: All operations require strict position control and stop-loss settings to prevent extreme market moves caused by unexpected events.