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The Strait of Hormuz suddenly becomes volatile, oil price future scenario analysis
Trump outright rejects Iran's negotiation plan, calling it "completely unacceptable," Iran reaffirms sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it will deploy light submarines, what will happen to oil prices next? Let’s look at the script from Little Wealth God.
💥 ‌Immediate nuclear explosion: the crazy logic of oil prices soaring 3.5% in one day‌
‌Night of digital horror‌
After Trump angrily denounced Iran's response as "completely unacceptable" on May 10:
▶ Brent crude‌ violently surged 3.05%‌, directly hitting‌ $104.38 per barrel‌
▶ WTI crude‌ approaching $99 mark‌
Market panic spreads:
“Traders curse while placing buy orders, gas station price signs are being updated overnight — tonight we are all oil hostages!”
‌Explosive trigger analysis‌
‌Strait choke point locked: The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global‌ oil transportation‌ (Data 3), a breakdown in negotiations means continued blockade
‌Ghosts of war reappear: Israeli Prime Minister vows “must physically remove Iran’s enriched uranium” (Data 6), warplane shadows cast over the Persian Gulf
🛳️ ‌Dominoes of the deadly route‌
‌First card: global oil tanker exodus‌
US Navy 21 warships block the strait → 61 merchant ships reroute urgently (Data 9)
‌Shipping insurance premiums surge 300%‌: oil tanker captains lament: “Transporting oil is like smuggling arms!”
‌Second card: refinery shutdown crisis‌
Korea’s SK Energy‌ shuts down 30% of capacity‌: “Without Middle Eastern oil, the machines can only drink northwest wind”
European diesel futures‌ soar 18% in a week‌: truck drivers strike collectively protesting high oil prices
‌Third card: inflation demon unleashed‌
‌Oil prices → freight costs → price transmission chain‌:
War clouds over the Persian Gulf → Middle Eastern oil supply cut off → Shanghai courier fees rise by 5 yuan → Pancake with egg costs 2 yuan more
⚔️ ‌Bull-bear killing game: Wall Street’s oil betting‌
‌Bear camp (led by Goldman Sachs)‌
Bottom card: U.S. shale oil‌ urgently increases production by 900k barrels/day‌
Mocking: “Strait blockade? We have the Permian Basin printing press!”
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Bull army (Saudi prince in command)‌
Killer move: OPEC+‌ extends production cuts until 2027‌
Declaration: “Every $1 increase in price, we give the people a gold toilet subsidy!”
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Mad faction (retail investors’ suicide squad)‌
Crazy operations:
▶ Long crude oil futures + hoard gas station discount coupons
▶ Bottom-fishing Russian oil tanker stocks (with Arctic route concept)
🔮 ‌Three major future life-and-death scenarios‌
‌Scenario A: Maritime blockade nuclear explosion (60% probability)‌
Trump launches naval blockade (Data 10) → oil prices‌ skyrocket to $140‌
‌Winner‌: shale oil companies, Arctic oil tankers, solar panel manufacturers
‌Losers‌: fuel vehicle owners, airlines, pancake vendors
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Scenario B: Secret oil pipeline operation (40% probability)‌
Saudi Aramco activates‌ underground desert pipelines‌ → bypasses the strait directly supplying the Red Sea
Oil prices‌ fall back to $90, but pipeline security costs are passed on to consumers