The talk that AI will take away jobs has really become more common lately. But I think this "apocalyptic" view actually ignores the basics of economics.

What A16z's general partner points out is a simple but important fallacy. The assumption that "the total amount of work to be done in the world is fixed" is incorrect. Human needs and desires are constantly changing, and in fact, they are expanding. In other words, every time technology increases efficiency, new demand is created.

Looking at history makes this clear. In the early 20th century, one-third of the American workforce was engaged in agriculture. With mechanization like tractors, that number dropped to 2%. But unemployment didn't overflow. Instead, agricultural workers moved into factories, stores, offices, hospitals, and the service and software industries. Agricultural output tripled, yet the entire economy continued to generate new industries one after another.

The same applies to electrification. In the early 20th century, only 5% of factories in America used electricity. By 1930, 80% were powered by electricity, and over the following decades, labor productivity doubled. Employment didn't decrease; rather, entirely new sectors like manufacturing, sales, and credit expanded.

When VisiCalc and Excel appeared, people said bookkeeping jobs would disappear. In reality, while the number of bookkeepers decreased, a new profession—financial analysts—emerged on the order of 1.5 million. About 1 million jobs were lost, but 1.5 million new ones were created. That’s the true nature of technological innovation.

What do current data say about AI? Academic research consistently concludes that "there hasn't been a major change." Studies from the NBER show that AI adoption hasn't significantly affected overall employment numbers. A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates that over 90% of companies saw no impact from AI in the past three years. Census Bureau analysis reports that only about 5% of companies using AI have observed effects on their employment levels.

But what's important is that, even if employment numbers stay the same, the nature of work is being reorganized. Routine administrative tasks are decreasing, but analytical, technical, and managerial jobs are increasing. The rising demand for software engineers and product managers is because AI is boosting productivity. Companies are trying to integrate AI into their business, which actually increases the value of these specialized roles.

Goldman Sachs's analysis is also interesting. During earnings calls, the number of times "AI enhancement" was mentioned is about eight times more than "AI substitution." Corporate management is focusing more on strengthening functions rather than reducing staff.

The scenario envisioned by apocalyptic thinkers is essentially "human desires will disappear." But that’s impossible. Humans are always seeking something new. When food becomes cheaper, we spend money on housing, healthcare, education, travel, and entertainment. Similarly, when cognitive abilities become cheaper, new problems are solved, new industries are created, and new jobs emerge.

In fact, the creation of new businesses is exploding and strongly correlates with AI adoption. The rate of new app store listings has increased by 60% year over year. Robotics has also been completely transformed by AI. The growth of datasets related to robotics has skyrocketed from 10th to 1st place in just two years.

Of course, not all jobs will be affected equally. Roles like customer service representatives and medical clerks are predicted to decline. However, on a macro level, there’s no statistically significant correlation between AI and unemployment rates.

What history shows is that technological innovation always expands the economy. Old dominant industries are replaced by new ones, leading to further economic growth. Today, technology is far larger than finance or railroads, but it still represents only a part of the entire economy.

Ultimately, I believe AI is not the end of jobs but the beginning of a richer era of intelligence. As productivity improves, humans will be elevated to more advanced work. Repetitive tasks will disappear, allowing us to focus on creative and complex problems. This has happened before, and it will almost certainly happen again this time. It already seems to be starting.