Just went through the latest Incrementum research and honestly, the gold thesis they're laying out is pretty compelling—especially their gold price prediction for 2030. Here's what caught my attention.

So the report's basically saying we're not at the end of the gold bull run, we're somewhere in the middle. Think about it: gold's up 92% over the past five years, hit 43 all-time highs last year, and we're still in what they call the "public participation stage." Media coverage is getting more bullish, new financial products are launching, retail is starting to pay attention. Classic bull market playbook.

What's wild is the central bank angle. Asian central banks especially have been on a serious buying spree since Russia's reserves got frozen in 2022. Global gold reserves hit 36,252 tons by early 2025, which is 22% of total currency reserves—highest since 1997. But here's the thing: China's only at 6.5% of official reserves, while the US, Germany, France are all sitting above 70%. There's still massive room for rebalancing, particularly if more countries start viewing gold as a hedge against geopolitical risk.

The Incrementum gold price prediction model is actually interesting. They're forecasting two scenarios by end-2030: a base case around $4,800 and an inflation scenario hitting $8,900. Currently gold's already exceeded their mid-term 2025 target of $2,942, so we're tracking closer to the higher scenario. The key drivers they highlight are pretty straightforward—Trump's potential dollar devaluation, European fiscal policy shifts (Germany abandoning its debt rules is huge), and the general depreciation of fiat currencies. Since 1900, M2 money supply in the US has grown 2,333x while population only grew 4.5x. That's the kind of monetary expansion that historically supports gold.

I also found their revised 60/40 portfolio concept useful: 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 25% gold (split between safe-haven and performance gold), 10% commodities, 5% Bitcoin. They're basically saying gold's no longer just a defensive play—it's becoming a core holding. They compare it to portfolio insurance, noting gold outperformed stocks in 15 out of 16 bear markets since 1929.

One thing worth noting: the report flags potential short-term risks. Central bank demand could drop, the dollar could strengthen, geopolitical tensions could ease. They mention gold could pull back to $2,800 in the near term or consolidate. That's the kind of volatility you should expect even in a strong bull market.

The Bitcoin angle is interesting too. They reckon Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold's market cap by 2030, which would mean Bitcoin hitting around $900,000 if gold reaches that $4,800 base case. They see them as complementary rather than competitive.

Bottom line: if you're thinking about gold positioning for the next few years, the structural case looks solid. Geopolitical realignment, monetary expansion, central bank demand—these aren't short-term noise. The gold price prediction for 2030 really hinges on how much inflation actually materializes, but either way, the medium-term direction seems pretty clear. Worth keeping an eye on.