The Powell era is finally coming to an end. In just a few days, Jerome Powell will step down as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board.

Honestly, his evaluation is complicated. His "temporary" inflation judgment was a huge failure, and the markets paid a painful price for it. But at the same time, amid multiple storms—pandemic, inflation surge not seen in 40 years, banking crises, and political clashes with Trump—the real economic collapse was avoided. Some call this a "soft landing."

When he took office in 2018, he succeeded Yellen and continued raising interest rates. But in 2019, he reversed course and shifted to rate cuts. During the subsequent COVID shock, he supported the markets with near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. His 2021 statement about "temporary inflation" is now hard to laugh at. That set the stage for the subsequent rapid rate hike cycle.

From 2022 to 2023, a rapid rate hike unprecedented in decades. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. And recent fierce conflicts with the Trump administration. Jerome Powell was always walking a tightrope.

Interestingly, he announced he would remain on the board after stepping down as Chair. This is an unprecedented move since 1948. The market interprets this as a symbolic act to preserve the independence of the central bank.

His successor is Kevin Woeh. Coming from Wall Street, he is seen as close to Trump. There are two market concerns. One is whether he will take a more aggressive approach to rate cuts. Trump has always demanded monetary easing. The second is whether he can truly maintain the independence of the central bank. This is really important.

Currently, the inflation rate still exceeds the 2% target. Opinions within the Fed are divided. If the market perceives Woeh as politically subordinate, the prices of U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, and risk assets overall could be reevaluated.

For ordinary people, the experience is simple. During the Powell era, prices rose, loans became more expensive, and life became harder. So what many are concerned about is not the name of the next chair, but whether things will finally become a little easier. The uncertainty currently facing the market is shifting from the known variable, Powell, to the unknown variable, Woeh.