The cryptocurrency policy environment is still uncertain. Even major market makers like Wintermute are not very optimistic about the U.S. passing the Clarity Act.

Judging from recent comments by officials, they estimate the chance of the bill passing this year at around 30%. While there are signs of progress in Washington, the actual legislative process is more complicated than people think. The reason firms like Wintermute are paying attention is that this bill is a key measure to clearly define regulatory responsibilities for digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC.

The problem is that negotiations are not going smoothly. The schedule keeps getting pushed back, and differences of opinion with traditional financial institutions are not being narrowed. In particular, there is said to be considerable disagreement over whether stablecoins should be allowed to offer yield. As these issues fail to lead to a compromise, the stalemate keeps recurring.

In addition, political factors such as internal divisions within the Democratic Party, compliance with DeFi regulations, and anti-money laundering concerns are making passage of the bill even more difficult. For market makers like Wintermute, this kind of uncertainty is inevitably an obstacle to planning their business.

That said, industry insiders believe that the bill’s passage is not completely impossible. Their assessment is that if the main issues are resolved to some extent, there could be progress within this year—but for now, that possibility is still quite limited.