There is a growing panic that AI will take away jobs, but honestly, I feel this debate largely ignores history. As pointed out by a partner at A16z, the underlying premise of this apocalyptic view is the mistaken assumption that "the total amount of work to be done in the world is fixed."

Think about it. In the early 20th century, one-third of the American workforce was engaged in agriculture. With mechanization like tractors, that percentage dropped to just 2% by 2017. If automation caused permanent unemployment, things would have been disastrous back then. But the reality was different. Agricultural productivity nearly tripled, and unemployed workers moved into factories, stores, hospitals, and eventually into service industries and software sectors. In other words, technological innovation doesn’t eliminate jobs; it changes the nature of work and creates new industries.

The same pattern applied during the era of electrification. In the early 20th century, only about 5% of American factories used electricity, but by 1930, around 80% of manufacturing was powered by electricity. Yet, unemployment didn’t spike dramatically; instead, productivity gains led to new employment opportunities and explosive growth in the automobile industry.

The same is true when VisiCalc and Excel appeared. Bookkeeping jobs were supposed to disappear. But in reality, the number of routine bookkeepers decreased, while a completely new industry—financial analysis (FP&A)—emerged, creating over 1.5 million analysis roles. The essence of technological progress isn’t just replacing old jobs with new ones; it’s restructuring the entire economy and expanding the scope of useful work.

Regarding AI, current data also does not support the end-of-work narrative. Multiple academic studies show that AI adoption has not significantly changed overall employment levels. Interestingly, routine administrative and managerial tasks are more often described as being replaced by AI, while analysis, technical, and managerial work are seen as being complemented and enhanced by AI. In other words, AI is not just taking some jobs away; it’s augmenting many jobs and shifting humans toward more advanced tasks.

Demand for software engineers has steadily increased since early 2025, and the number of job openings for product managers (after a temporary dip due to interest rate fluctuations) has reached its highest level since 2022. What does this mean? If AI were to fully replace thinking, demand for these roles should decline. But the opposite is happening. As productivity improves, demand for both types of talent continues to recover.

Most importantly, nearly all the employment created since 1940 did not exist in 1940. While the decline of travel agencies was predictable, who could have imagined the rise of technology services for mid-sized companies centered around cloud migration? Similarly, even amid current AI-driven changes, new jobs and industries are emerging that we haven’t even imagined yet.

In conclusion, AI is not the end of employment but just the true beginning of knowledge work. Automation eliminates repetitive tasks, elevating human work to higher levels. Human ambition has no limits; as scarcity diminishes, people aim for greater development. When food prices fall, spending on housing, education, travel, and entertainment increases. The labor market moves on the same logic. The emergence of new businesses is exploding and is highly correlated with AI applications. In robotics and engineering fields, AI has brought attention to entirely new industries and a large number of unmet needs.

Certainly, some jobs will disappear and others will shrink. The economy may experience a transitional adjustment. But from a macro perspective, the future is not one of mass unemployment. Cheaper AI, larger markets, new companies, new industries, and more advanced human work await. There is no fixed value for the amount of work or cognitive capacity. AI is not the end of employment; it’s the dawn of a richer era of intelligence.