I've been thinking a lot about what's actually happening in crypto right now, and honestly, it's kind of fascinating in a weird way. There's this strange K-shaped structure emerging that most people don't quite grasp yet.

On one hand, we're seeing genuinely successful projects. Polymarket is thriving. Prediction markets have basically become a real infrastructure play, and you've got this duopoly forming between Kalshi and Polymarket that actually works. Stablecoins aren't some theoretical experiment anymore—they're becoming real money infrastructure. These things are delivering on what crypto promised. They're not hypothetical anymore.

But here's the frustration part: none of this success is translating into returns for regular investors through public tokens. You look at Polymarket crushing it, and you think, "Okay, how do I invest in this?" Well, you can't, unless you're in the club. It's still private. Same with Stripe. These projects are printing value but the average person has zero access. That's the K-shape. Success and failure diverging completely.

The crypto industry is actually delivering on a lot of its promises now. Hyperliquid is genuinely cool. Trade XYZ is doing real things. These aren't vaporware. But the average investor is stuck watching from outside while the actual value creation happens in private rounds. It's genuinely frustrating, and I think people feel that frustration even if they can't quite articulate it.

What keeps me interested though is that capital keeps flowing onto the blockchain. As long as that happens, the next cycle of excitement becomes almost inevitable. I've been pretty pessimistic about various things over the years, and honestly, pessimism has never actually helped me. It's just made me sad. So I'm trying to take a longer view now.

The thing that worries me most about DeFi right now is AI. Not in some distant sci-fi way—I mean right now. Something like Anthropic's capabilities could genuinely turn DeFi into a financial bounty system. Once these models are widely distributed, attackers will exploit them, but so will the people building these systems. DeFi might need to completely reinvent itself. That's both exciting and terrifying.

But here's what's wild: AI is also changing the entire startup equation. You can now start a business solo and potentially hit billion-dollar outcomes in months. We're seeing this with things like OpenClaw—one person generating billions in revenue in like a month. That's not hyperbole, that's actually happening. The economic model for early employees is completely different now too. Used to be you'd join a startup and take massive risk for maybe one-twentieth of founder returns. Now companies need fewer people, raise less capital, have less dilution, and exit faster. The risk-reward for early employees is actually inverted now.

If I were young today, I'd probably do one of two things: either build something solo or with a couple friends that would've needed 10-20 people five years ago, or find the smartest person I know and do everything possible to help them succeed. The barriers that used to exist just aren't there anymore.

This connects to something bigger though. The private equity market is honestly broken in a way that violates basic capitalist promises. SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI—these companies went from nothing to trillion-dollar valuations. Almost nobody outside the elite club got to participate in that wealth creation. It's like the entire promise of capitalism—that if you work hard and invest wisely, you can share in growth—just evaporated. You can't buy SpaceX stock. You can't invest in OpenAI at a reasonable valuation. You're locked out.

The public markets are becoming a liquidity provider of last resort. You get to buy in at peak valuations after all the real value creation already happened. It's the same thing happening in crypto, honestly. VC rounds get massive, tokens launch at $16 billion FDV when they were $100 million two days prior. It feels like a broken promise.

Here's where airdrops actually become interesting though. Yeah, they look absurd on the surface—people pretending to use products they don't care about just to farm tokens. But occasionally you get something like Hyperliquid where users actually believe in the product and hold even after getting tokens. That's different.

Now imagine applying that model to regular consumer companies. Early Facebook users created massive value—they launched the product, gave feedback, built network effects. But they got nothing except the ability to use Facebook. What if they'd gotten actual equity? What if that airdrop model worked for real startups?

That's actually capitalism's answer to universal basic income. You participate in economic activity, and if you're a serious user, you capture some of the value you created. Cryptocurrency can do this globally in a way nothing else can. The first real company that does this properly will need to be incredibly bold. Hyperliquid is probably the best case study of how powerful this can be.

I've noticed something about how people experience crypto though. You live so intensely in the present moment that your current emotions feel absolutely real and permanent. But then you look back three months and realize you felt completely opposite. It's wild. I went to the dentist once and he mentioned he had 80% of his portfolio in MicroStrategy and 20% in Palantir. This guy was probably in his 70s, not some crypto Twitter person. That's when I realized Bitcoin had actually broken through into the real world. Before that I kind of thought crypto was this hallucination I had while sitting at home.

What's interesting now is how sentiment around Saylor has shifted. Used to be "Saylor buying Bitcoin is great news." Now when prices drop, people see it as a warning sign. When prices go up, suddenly "Saylor is awesome again." The emotional whiplash is intense. It's the same with everything—one day something seems impossible, the next day it's obvious. NFTs are the perfect example. I know people who bought ICOs in 2017, then one failed and they decided all crypto was a scam. Then NFTs came along and suddenly they were like "No, this is different, I'm collecting art." Their entire worldview flipped because Art Blocks existed.

The pattern is consistent though. Every major entry point in crypto has had the same characteristic: ordinary people made real money in a short timeframe, and it was accessible to everyone. 2013 had the altcoin cycle. 2017 was ICOs—you needed Ethereum because it was the base pair. 2021 had DeFi summer and NFTs. 2023 to now has been the meme cycle. Each time, regular people could actually profit. That's what brings waves of new participants.

AI is giving off similar vibes now. People imagine buying a Mac Mini, installing some AI model, and having it run a business for them earning $100 million. That "side hustle that makes you rich" fantasy is incredibly powerful. Will crypto have something similar again? Has the brand been too damaged? Will it take 5-10 years? I don't know. But history doesn't have a reason not to repeat itself. Human creativity is too powerful.

I think what new things like on-chain stocks, tokenized stocks, Hyperliquid's perpetual contracts, and Trade XYZ can do is bring new capital onto the blockchain and make people comfortable using blockchain infrastructure. If you're a traditional trader suddenly using Hyperliquid, you're learning how blockchain works. That's powerful. You might not care about crypto ideology, but you're now on-chain. If huge amounts of capital concentrate on-chain and traditional asset volatility decreases, that capital will look for new opportunities. People will invent new DeFi, new things we can't imagine yet.

The traders who actually succeed long-term have something in common: extreme self-motivation. They don't just read crypto Twitter and copy strategies. They think from first principles about how things affect markets and why. They document their decisions. They reflect on results. They constantly update their mental models. It's like they're adding training data to themselves.

I remember my buy wall thing that people made into legend. Honestly, it wasn't that cool. I was home in London, market crashed hard around 1 AM, I woke up to price alerts, saw a massive red candle, thought it looked like a bottom, and put in a buy order at $4,600 with basically all my stablecoin balance. Then I tweeted about it and went to sleep. Most of the order never filled. I got lucky with timing, that's all. I get genuinely excited when markets drop 50-60% in one candle because that means people are being forced to sell, not choosing to. That's when you can buy from people who wouldn't normally sell. It's an opportunity.

But I had conviction that the macro cycle had bottomed. Even if prices kept falling, I felt the price was acceptable. People got fixated on the story, but it was mostly luck. And my net worth wasn't huge—it was just all my on-chain money, and most of it didn't even execute.

The toxic thing about crypto is the comparison trap. Even if you're a millionaire, you look at someone else making more and feel like a failure. I felt that in 2021 when Three Arrows Capital seemed to explode onto the scene and their net worth exceeded mine by multiples. I'd been trading since 2012 but suddenly I'm doubting myself. Was I stupid? Not taking enough risk? Not smart enough? That mindset is genuinely toxic.

But here's what I learned: don't compare yourself to some perfect version who makes all the right calls. Don't use your historical peak net worth as your benchmark. Twenty percent annually is already elite-level returns in the world. The people who actually preserve wealth are those satisfied with what they have. That's the real skill.

When I think about the greatest traders I know, everyone has their high season. Su Zhu in 2021 was definitely top-five. He had this heroic trading period, even sold at the top. Problem was he re-bought with too much leverage too early and got liquidated in the downturn. GCR is also top-five. He's like a smart asset, playing psychological games. He spreads rumors about himself to keep others away from his real alpha. People think he has inside sources at major exchanges, but maybe he's just trying to discourage competitors from finding the actual API or data path he uses.

Light is definitely top-tier too. 2025 could be his best year. These traders have extreme self-discipline. They don't use leverage much if at all. They're cautious but consistent. I'm probably closer to that type—I've only been completely risk-on maybe four or five times in my life.

I don't regret becoming Cobie, honestly. A lot of my life exists because of that Twitter account. It would be ungrateful to regret it. I occasionally regret podcasting because the upside is limited but downside risk is real. There were some weird people, even stalkers showing up near my place. But I rarely go out, spend most of my time in places where nobody reads my content, and I cut my hair short so I'm harder to recognize.

I was pretty lost when I first got into crypto at 24-25, doing random startups with no idea what I wanted. Crypto channeled that wandering energy into something interesting. It's like a fun financial hobby, a game where you try to do your best and learn.

For people feeling lost right now about what to do next: take a long-term view. Look five or ten years ahead. If you genuinely believe something in crypto will be important then, allocate capital based on that belief. If you're pessimistic about the whole industry and only staying for past thrills, switch hobbies. Try Pokemon cards, sports cards, learning AI development. If you truly don't believe in crypto's future but you're still trading every day causing yourself pain, why are you here?

The crypto industry is a marathon, not a sprint. People think they'll get rich in three months. Wealth accumulation is slower. You might need four or five years before seeing real breakthrough. If you don't believe in what you're doing, those years will be torture because you'll doubt yourself constantly. Don't listen to internet randoms, especially ones with cat avatars or broccoli hair.

I think helping people is genuinely good. Yeah, I've been betrayed because I assume people have good intentions like me. But if I wish someone had helped me in a situation I've been through, then helping others now, staying optimistic, connecting with people—that makes life richer and more interesting. That's a wonderful way to live.

The financial media space is getting interesting too. You're seeing another K-shape forming. Podcasts like Call Her Daddy or Joe Rogan have millions of listeners but low incremental value per user—maybe $3 in product sales. But niche financial media reaches smaller audiences with extremely valuable users. Each user might be worth $10,000 instead of $3. That's the interesting dynamic.

I think in the next three to five years, a financial-native content creator will emerge who becomes representative of a trend. They'll probably publicly share their holdings, showcase their life and market ups and downs, present what many experience but haven't been expressed in a cool way. Strong personal charisma, genuinely skilled at markets. If the timing is right, someone producing excellent content in a good year could become ten times bigger than Roaring Kitty. Of course, they could also cause market disruption and end up in jail, so include a disclaimer if you interview them.

Bottom line: I believe crypto will be important in the future. I've been bullish since 2012. The industry is delivering on promises. Capital keeps flowing on-chain. Airdrops and on-chain ownership models can redistribute value in ways traditional finance never could. Yes, there are risks. Yes, AI threatens DeFi. Yes, wealth inequality is accelerating. But human creativity is powerful, and history repeats. Something new will emerge that lets regular people profit again. When it does, waves of participants will follow. That's how this works. That's how it's always worked.