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The U.S. economy is sending some strange signals. The Q4 GDP growth rate was only 1.4%, which is the lowest since Q1 2025. It fell well short of the market expectation of 3%.
What's more interesting is the inflation side. The U.S. core PCE index has risen to 3% annually. It also exceeded the expected 2.9%, reaching the highest level in recent months. With the economy slowing down but prices continuing to rise, policymakers are probably having a tough time.
The outlook ahead isn't very bright either. U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.2% in 2025, which is lower than last year's 2.8%. The key point is that despite the economic slowdown, the U.S. PCE inflation index remains strong, and how long this imbalance lasts will be crucial.