Saudi Aramco warns that oil market recovery may be delayed until 2027, with increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz intensifying supply shocks

BlockBeats News, May 11 — Saudi Aramco recently stated that, with the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the global crude oil market could face an unprecedented supply shock, and the oil market recovery may be delayed until 2027.

CEO Amin Nasser pointed out that if the key shipping channel remains closed for an extended period, global crude oil supply could decrease by about 100 million barrels per week, with the cumulative shortfall since the conflict began approaching 1 billion barrels. He said this impact “could be one of the largest in global energy history.”

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global oil transportation. Once passage is blocked, the supply and demand structure will remain under pressure. Saudi Aramco estimates that if the situation cannot be restored within a few weeks, the global market recovery cycle may be forced to extend to 2027.

To address transportation risks, the company is accelerating the construction of alternative export routes, focusing on increasing the capacity of the Red Sea extension export terminal, and relying on east-west oil pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to increase the daily export capacity of related channels to over 5 million barrels.

Despite supply-side pressures, Saudi Aramco still recorded approximately 25% quarterly profit growth in a high oil price environment, providing funding for infrastructure expansion and logistics restructuring.

Analysts point out that the current energy market is entering a high-volatility phase, with geopolitical risks and supply bottlenecks stacking up, forcing a re-evaluation of global energy security and inventory strategies.