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Been seeing some interesting takes lately about SBF's venture capital portfolio getting re-examined by the market. Apparently if that whole FTX collapse never happened, we're talking potentially hundreds of billions in unrealized gains from his early AI bets.
So here's what's wild about the latest SBF analysis - he was already deep into companies like Anthropic, SpaceX, Robinhood, and Cursor way before the AI wave really took off. We're not just talking about lucky timing either. His fund had positioned itself in what turned out to be some of the most critical AI infrastructure plays:
Cursor just partnered with SpaceX and could be valued around $60 billion now. Anthropic's sitting near $90 billion. These weren't random shots in the dark. According to Scale Venture Partners, SBF had basically already placed his bets on core AI companies before ChatGPT even blew up. The investment acumen was genuinely rare for that moment.
But here's where the narrative completely falls apart. The latest SBF story isn't about venture genius - it's about one of the most spectacular downfalls in crypto history. He's doing 25 years for misappropriating over $8 billion in customer funds. At his peak he was worth around $24 billion, made the Forbes 400, and now his entire legacy is defined by financial crime.
It's almost surreal reading these what-if pieces about how much money he could've made if FTX never imploded. The venture capital narrative got completely overshadowed by the fraud narrative. Hard to separate the investment foresight from the fact that it was all built on stolen funds anyway.