Recently, I noticed a noteworthy market signal. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has just risen to 5%, hitting a new high since July last year, which is not good news for the crypto market.

Honestly, when returns on traditional assets start attracting capital, risk assets come under pressure. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains a tightening stance, investors have safer options—real yields on government bonds are becoming increasingly competitive. This is not a new phenomenon, but it is definitely worth paying attention to.

I see several market analysts discussing the same issue: a strong dollar combined with rising Treasury yields historically tightens financial conditions, directly putting pressure on crypto asset valuations. And based on the Fed’s recent actions, they haven’t signaled any dovish stance. Three voting officials oppose easing guidance, which is essentially pouring cold water—breaking the market’s expectations of rate cuts.

In this environment, capital naturally flows toward yield and safety rather than volatile assets. Inflation has not convincingly returned to target levels, and the likelihood of the Fed shifting stance in the near term is low. The sustained high level of the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield indicates that traditional financial assets will continue to attract capital.

Interestingly, the market’s attitude toward the next Fed chair seems to be changing as well. The hawkish dissent from those three officials is interpreted as a warning sign, indicating they are unlikely to be easily convinced by the narrative that “interest rates can eventually be lowered.” In other words, the tightening cycle may last longer than the market expects.

Bitcoin is now feeling all of this. As a risk indicator, it is especially sensitive to liquidity and policy changes. As long as the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield remains attractive, it will be difficult for the crypto market to see large-scale capital inflows. This isn’t about giving up, but about recognizing the current market environment—traditional assets are becoming more competitive, and we need to wait for signals of policy turning.