Anyone keeping an eye on Bitcoin trading lately should be able to feel just how uncomfortable this round of volatility is. BTC repeatedly met resistance in front of the $80,000 level, briefly falling below $76,000. It’s now been grinding back and forth between $76,300 and $77,000, and it feels like neither the bulls nor the bears have much confidence.

Looking at the macro picture makes it clear—things are truly chaotic. All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq suffering the largest drop, approaching 1%. The main reason is that tech stocks are a bit rattled by what’s going on with OpenAI. I heard that their weekly active users and revenue didn’t meet internal expectations, which directly triggered market doubts about the returns on those tech giants’ massive AI investments. The semiconductor index fell 3.6%. Oracle and NVIDIA also slid, and SoftBank fared even worse—because pressure from its OpenAI investments weighed on it, causing Japanese stocks to plunge nearly 10%.

The situation in the Middle East is also pretty tense. Iran’s peace proposal wasn’t satisfactory to the U.S., and oil prices jumped as a result. Citibank set the target price for Brent crude at $120, and some analysts even think that if the conflict extends into summer, it could surge to $150. With this kind of risk premium in place, gold didn’t rise—in fact, it broke below $4,600. Silver fell by more than 3%, and it looks like funds are being reallocated into energy and inflation trades.

Rate-cut expectations are also continuously being compressed. Market pricing for a rate cut in 2026 has already been reduced significantly. This week, the FOMC is very likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. This time, Powell may be presiding over his last rate decision.

Back to Bitcoin trading from a technical perspective, I’ve noticed several signals worth paying attention to. Over the past three days, short-term holders have transferred nearly 150,000 BTC to exchanges. As soon as there’s an opportunity, they rush to “sell the top,” which is a clear sign of selling pressure. The premium index for a certain CEX turned negative for the first time in three weeks, indicating that demand in the U.S. spot market has begun to weaken. Fear also spread through the options market; deeply out-of-the-money put options were being snapped up aggressively, pushing implied volatility up to 38.13%.

The logic for the bears looks fairly clear—short-term liquidity and on-chain data are flashing red. BTC has already broken below the $77,300 liquidity zone. The bulls now need to hold the key support range of $74,500 to $75,500; otherwise, the probability of a drop below $70,000 will rise noticeably. Some analysts point out that support at $77,400 has turned into resistance. If the price rebounds into $76,800 to $77,400 and is rejected again, it could continue moving downward toward high-volume nodes.

But the bulls also have their own logic. Some institutional investors believe Bitcoin is undervalued, and roughly 75% of institutions and 71% of retail investors share that view. The Bitcoin monthly chart is forming a “Morning Star” pattern. Over the past three years, similar high-cycle patterns have all become macro turning points. As long as the low at $73,000 is held, the structure still tilts upward. Some analysts believe that the current consolidation is just typical behavior ahead of the FOMC, and the market could still enter a strong period.

A lot is set to happen today as well—Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple will release earnings reports densely over the next two days. Combined, these companies account for 44% of the total market cap of the S&P 500, so the market will focus on the scale of AI spending and investment returns. At the same time, multiple tokens will also unlock: OP, ZORA, GUN, KMNO, and others all have large unlocks scheduled around April 30.

My own feeling is that while there are indeed quite a few risks in the short term, there’s no need to be overly pessimistic. BTC is currently near $81,000, which is already a correction from prior highs, but in the long run, institutions are still laying out positions. The key is whether the FOMC decision and the earnings reports from technology giants can bring a new direction—and whether those large unlocks will bring fresh selling pressure. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently still at 26 (fear), which usually means market sentiment hasn’t fully collapsed yet, and there may still be room for a rebound.