The US cryptocurrency regulation is now at a truly critical juncture. As Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse warned at Consensus Miami, the next two weeks are likely to be a watershed moment that will determine whether the bill is passed.

Garlinghouse's point is accurate. If the Senate Banking Committee does not hold a hearing within a few weeks, the chances of the bill passing will rapidly decrease. This is because delaying this issue until the midterm elections would make it too politically sensitive. The likelihood of it coming up again after the elections would be even more limited.

Last week, news that senators reached a compromise on stablecoin rewards opened the possibility of moving forward with deliberations in May. However, concerns over Trump's conflicts of interest and illegal funding have yet to be resolved.

What is crucial here, as Garlinghouse also emphasizes, is that simply establishing guidelines by the SEC and CFTC or clarifying token classifications is not enough. Regulatory agencies' judgments are highly susceptible to the influence of future regime changes. Ultimately, what brings true stability is only legislation that is enacted into law.

For the cryptocurrency industry, how important the next two weeks will be is clear from Garlinghouse's words. Missing this window could deepen the uncertainty in the regulatory environment. The market is also closely watching these developments.