#Polymarket百U战神挑战 Polymarket Strategy Brief Analysis

## 1. Core Mechanisms

Polymarket’s prices represent the probability of an event occurring, and for the same event, the YES + NO prices always add up to 1 (since 1 USDC can be minted into 1 YES + 1 NO, and it can also be redeemed in reverse). This mechanism is the foundation for arbitrage.

## 2. Four Viable Strategies

### 1. High-Probability “Bond” Strategy (Best for Beginners)

Buy options with high certainty when the price is >0.95, and hold until settlement (1.0). For example, if you buy at 0.95 and it settles after 3 days, the profit per trade is 5.26%, with a substantial annualized return.

**Risk:** Black swan events (low-probability reversals) can erase multiple gains.

### 2. End-of-Session Sniping Strategy (Low Risk)

When the result is already determined, buy in the 0.997-0.999 range to capture a small price spread of 0.1%-0.3%. When the capital size is large, you can roll the position forward.

**Risk:** Large players may intentionally crash the market to create panic; after accumulating at a low price, they then push the price up.

### 3. Cross-Platform Arbitrage

For the same event, price differences across different platforms can be used to lock in risk-free profits.

**Core point:** Be sure to verify the settlement rules across different platforms—rule differences may cause losses on both sides.

### 4. Market Making Strategy (Advanced)

Place buy and sell orders on both sides of the order book (e.g., buy at 0.49 and sell at 0.51) to earn the bid-ask spread. Under the current mechanism, maker orders have zero fees and also receive rebates.

**Requirements:** Low latency, automated order cancellation, and placing bid-ask orders simultaneously.