It's really fascinating that gold is moving away from its relic status in the age of money. Last year, the Incrementum report showed a quite optimistic outlook for gold prices by 2030.

As the global political and economic order shakes, gold is once again gaining attention. It’s being re-evaluated not just as a traditional outdated asset but as a true monetary asset without counterparty risk. Especially with factors like the U.S. fiscal deficit, large-scale central bank purchases, and the potential weakening of the dollar coming together.

An interesting point is the analysis that gold is still in the mid-stage of a bull market. According to Dow Theory, it’s gone through an accumulation phase and is now in the public participation stage, with media coverage becoming more positive and trading volume increasing. Gold prices have risen 92% over the past five years, but that’s not the end.

Central bank demand is a key pillar. They’ve been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually since 2022. Particularly led by Asian central banks, and according to Goldman Sachs analysis, China alone is continuing to buy at a pace of 40 tons per month. With this structural demand, the outlook for gold prices in 2030 looks promising.

The core scenario in the report projects about $4,800 by the end of 2030 in the baseline scenario, and up to $8,900 in an inflationary scenario. Since current gold prices have already surpassed mid-term targets, the inflation scenario seems more likely to materialize.

A particularly notable concept is the 'Shadow Gold Price.' It calculates what gold price should be if the total monetary base is fully backed by gold. Just a 40% backing based on U.S. M0 results in $8,160. Currently, the proportion of gold assets in the U.S. monetary base is only 14.5%.

Trump administration policies also influence this outlook. Tariff hikes, plans to devalue the dollar, and government spending cuts through the DOGE program could all lead to monetary expansion. Europe is also set to see a surge in bond issuance as Germany’s fiscal conservatism is abandoned.

From a portfolio perspective, it’s also interesting. Moving away from the traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds allocation, the report suggests diversifying into new assets like 15% gold, 10% performance-based gold, and 5% Bitcoin. Gold has historically delivered an average relative return of +42.55% in bear markets.

In the short term, there’s also potential for correction. The report suggests gold could fall to around $2,800, but this would just be a normalization process within the bull market and wouldn’t affect the long-term trend. Short-term risks include decreasing central bank demand, easing geopolitical tensions, and a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy.

In conclusion, the outlook for gold prices by 2030 involves the reorganization of the global financial order, monetary expansion, and strategic central bank purchases all interacting. It’s like witnessing gold evolve from a simple defensive asset into an aggressive growth asset. Performance-oriented gold assets like silver or mining stocks are also worth paying attention to. If you’re interested, platforms like Gate offer a good way to observe the movements of gold-related assets.