Recently, I came across an interesting analytical report on the gold market. It's an annual report called "In Gold We Trust" by Incrementum, and the outlook for gold prices toward 2030 is quite fascinating.

The report points out that the current gold market is still in the early stages. According to Dow Theory, in the three phases of a bull market, we are now in the "public participation phase." In other words, the media is starting to become optimistic, and new financial products are continuously emerging. Despite gold prices rising 92% over the past five years, it hasn't yet entered a full-blown frenzy stage, which is quite thought-provoking.

The background largely involves a global reorganization of the financial system. Factors such as the U.S. fiscal deficit, the wobbling of dollar dominance, and rising geopolitical tensions are converging, rapidly increasing gold's strategic value. Central bank activity is especially notable. They've been increasing gold reserves by over 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, indicating that countries recognize the importance of gold.

The report also highlights a new portfolio allocation proposal. Instead of the traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds, it suggests including 15% gold as a safe asset, 10% performance gold, and 5% Bitcoin. This reflects a recognition that trust in financial assets is waning.

Regarding price forecasts, the baseline scenario predicts around $4,800 by the end of 2030, while an inflation scenario estimates about $8,900. Since current gold prices already exceed $3,000, if inflation accelerates, there's a strong possibility that gold could rise significantly further by 2030.

In the short term, there are risks of correction. The report warns that if demand from central banks declines or if geopolitical premiums diminish, prices could fall to around $2,800. However, the main argument is that the long-term trend will remain unchanged.

An intriguing aspect is the relationship with Bitcoin. The report suggests that by 2030, Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold's market capitalization, roughly $900k per BTC. It might be that both gold and cryptocurrencies are entering an era where they benefit from a growing distrust of the traditional financial system.

Personally, I feel like we're witnessing gold reemerge from being considered a "dated asset" to becoming a "core component" of portfolios. Amid ongoing political and economic turmoil, the value of gold is likely to continue rising.