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Recently, Galaxy Digital’s research team has deeply discussed the potential threats that quantum computing could pose to Bitcoin, and the industry has gradually reached some interesting consensus.
The first consensus concerns those long-dormant Bitcoins of Satoshi Nakamoto. According to statistics, about 1.1 million BTC mined in Satoshi Nakamoto’s early period are spread across approximately 22k addresses, and this asset has basically never been moved. Some have suggested that these coins should be transferred to address the quantum threat, but industry sentiment generally holds that this is not a good idea. The reason is simple—forcing the use of Satoshi Nakamoto’s BTC would directly damage Bitcoin’s most core value proposition. However, what’s interesting is that even if these BTC were really transferred, the market actually has enough capacity to absorb the impact, and solutions like “Hourglass” could effectively mitigate the risk.
The second consensus is more practical. The industry believes that Bitcoin’s anti-quantum cryptography research and testing should be actively advanced, so emergency plans can be prepared in advance. But there is a key trade-off here—these solutions should not be implemented too hastily at the protocol level, otherwise it could easily trigger disagreements in consensus or bring new risks. The logic is actually quite clear: even if the quantum threat only has a 1% probability of truly affecting Bitcoin, this kind of long-term investment is still worth it.
Put plainly, these Bitcoins of Satoshi Nakamoto are like “living fossils” of Bitcoin’s history—moving them is like digging a hole for yourself. Rather than fussing over them, it’s better to put your effort into technical reserves; that is the right way to respond to future risks.