$BTC Evening Core Viewpoint | Bitcoin Market Analysis

From the market signals, the yellow arrow above clearly indicates a standard bearish signal, representing an excellent shorting opportunity at high levels; those who haven't positioned short at this level are currently advised not to blindly chase the short. Unless confident that Bitcoin will break below the 80k key level, the risk-reward ratio at the current position is severely unbalanced, making shorting highly unattractive.
Looking at the white arrow below marked with a doji pattern: after the price broke below the 81,631 key support, it attempted to rebound and push higher, aiming to re-establish above the 81,631 resistance level, but the upward attempt failed, leading to a decline. Subsequently, it retraced to around the 80,319 support, which fully aligns with bearish logic.
Currently, the Bitcoin hourly chart has broken below the bearish flag pattern. The subsequent trend falls into two core scenarios:
✅ If the rebound can re-enter the flag pattern, entering a range-bound consolidation, there remains a possibility of testing higher levels;
❌ If the rebound is weak and cannot re-enter the flag pattern, the retracement to the 80,319 support will likely break directly; once the 80,319 support is lost, the next target is the previous low at 79,137.
Pay close attention to the key level of 79,137: if it stabilizes here, forming a multiple bottom pattern with the previous red arrow position, and enters a consolidation phase, there is still a chance for an upward rebound; conversely, if the 79,137 support is broken directly, the price will head straight to the Fibonacci 1:1 target at 78,768.
Core conclusion: Only a confirmed break below 78,768 will truly signal the start of a major correction; before that, all declines are merely short-term retracements, not waterfall declines or trend reversals.
Short-term key operations (strict stop-loss required)
✅ Long on the right side: Bitcoin breaks above 80,935 with volume and stabilizes, targeting 82,334–83,167; if it cannot hold above 80,935, the bulls lack momentum.
❌ Short on the right side: Bitcoin breaks below 80,506 with volume, and the rebound fails to recover the support level, so follow with a short position.
4-hour timeframe risk warning
1. The 4-hour chart shows a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, with the neckline at 79,168; once the neckline is broken effectively, the head-and-shoulders pattern is confirmed, indicating strong bearish momentum, with the next target in the 78,090–77,298 zone to look for signs of a bottom.
2. The large bearish candle marked by the yellow box above is a key resistance: if the current 4-hour candle cannot recover more than half of this large bearish candle, the market will continue to decline; only if it recovers more than half of the candle can a basis for a rebound be established.