I noticed an interesting pattern in Google Trends search data over the past few months. In the US, searches for the phrase "bitcoin zero" skyrocketed in February — reaching a maximum of 100 on the relative popularity scale. This coincided with Bitcoin falling below $60,000 after crashing more than half from its October record high. At first glance, it looks like a classic panic capitulation signal, similar to what we saw in 2021 and 2022 before local bottoms.

But the overall picture tells a completely different story. Worldwide, the same term peaked back in August, and by May, it had fallen to 38. So, fear is concentrated solely in the US, while the rest of the world has already calmed down. The divergence is obvious.

I tried to understand why this is happening. It seems to be due to local factors — tariff wars, tensions with Iran, rotation into more conservative assets in the US stock market. Asian and European investors are reacting to these news less sharply. Plus, the base of Bitcoin investors in the US is much larger than it was in 2022. When Google Trends shows 100, it doesn’t mean more searches in absolute numbers — it means the maximum relative to the current period with a much larger audience.

Conclusion: retail fear in the US is clearly heightened, but this signal isn’t as straightforward as it might seem. When the global trend cools down and panic is localized in one region, it’s no longer a guarantee of a clear reversal. It could be a counter-move, but not foolproof.

Separately — MicroStrategy continues to buy. Last week, they purchased 535 Bitcoins for about $43 million (average price $80,340 per coin). In total, the company has already spent around $61.8 billion on Bitcoin at an average price of $75,540. MSTR shares rose 1% in pre-market trading. It’s interesting to observe how major players act when the retail sector is panicking.